The Western Michigan Broncos are tied atop the MAC standings with the Ohio Bobcats at 3-0, and they will hit the road this week for Toledo to play the Rockets, who are 2-1 in conference. The last time these teams met was last September, when the Broncos won outright 14-13 as a +13.5 underdog. It was one of the losses that held Toledo out of their conference championship game, which WMU won, but I’m not exactly sure how much weight we should put into the revenge spot here given the complete overhaul in the Toledo program. Jason Candel is now at UConn, and a vast majority of this roster wasn’t in Toledo last year.
The Rockets are historically very good at home, but I’ve downgraded their home-field advantage after the Temple game and Buffalo loss, in addition to the regime change. As such, it’s created some value on Western Michigan. Frankly, I’m surprised to see the defending MAC champions as more than a field-goal underdog in this matchup. The teams are relatively even on paper; WMU is 87th in my power ratings while Toledo is 88th, so this is essentially a pick ‘em on a neutral field. In Toledo, the Rockets rightfully are being spotted extra points, but this number has gone too far, in my opinion.
The Broncos won’t be intimidated by the venue; they’re 4-0 SU on the road if you consider their stolen win in Ann Arbor in Week 1. Plus, they’re second-best in the conference defensively, holding their MAC foes to just 38 combined points in three games. The only other top-flight MAC defense the Rockets saw to this point was Buffalo, against whom Toledo only scored eight points at home. If you care about transitive properties (you shouldn’t put much weight into it, but it’s fun to look at), WMU beat Buffalo on the road 20-17.
With a strong run game, more experience at quarterback and a reliable defense, the Broncos scream value at a field goal or better.
Western Michigan vs Toledo prediction: Western Michigan +3.5 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to +2 (-110).
