The Tulsa Golden Hurricane are off a bye after losing 38-35 to Army in Week 8. The defeat marked their fourth in five games, with their only win in that span coming against Rice. How this defense held Oklahoma State to 10 points in Week 1 is beyond me considering Tulsa surrendered 38 to Army, 34 to Navy, 45 to UNT in OT and 34 to Arkansas since then. On the other side and like Tulsa, Tulane is 4-4 SU, but last week wasn’t easy against lowly Charlotte.
The Green Wave needed overtime to beat the 49ers, 38-31, marking their third win in five games. For what it’s worth, Tulane has alternated wins and losses every week this year, starting with their Week 1 loss to Duke. If that pattern continues, they’re due to lose this week, which is something oddsmakers already expect given Tulane is catching points at home at the time of writing, albeit for different reasons than simply alternating wins and losses.
It’s hard to trust this Tulane team right now. The Green Wave had six giveaways at home against UTSA two weeks ago, while they surrendered more than 220 rushing yards on nearly five yards per attempt and allowed the Roadrunners to convert 12 of their 16 third downs. Then, they followed that up by surrendering 455 yards to a Charlotte offense that averages fewer than 350 in conference play, as well as a 50% third-down conversion rate – nearly 16.5% better than the 49ers’ season average.
Coming into this game fresh off a bye and not playing against an option-based offense should be a breath of fresh air for the Golden Hurricane. QB Baylor Hayes is a loose cannon at times, but with him, Tulsa’s offense is top-35 in down-to-down efficiency outside of garbage time over the last six weeks, and they’re one of the nation’s six best teams in points per scoring opportunity over that stretch as well, averaging 4.85 points per non-garbage-time trip across the opposing 40-yard line. Tulane isn’t anywhere close to that mark – they don’t even average a field goal when they make it inside the 40. Give me Tulsa here.
Tulsa vs Tulane prediction: Tulsa ML (-118) available at time of publishing. Playable to -135.
