In one of the more compelling games of Week 8, the Army Black Knights will head to Tulsa to play the Golden Hurricane on Friday night, which will air on ESPN2 at 8:30 PM ET.
The first thing that stands out in this handicap is the fact that Tulsa played Navy and Rice in consecutive games ahead of this contest. The popular train of thought is that playing two option offenses ahead of Army is the most ideal way to prepare for the Black Knights, and I wouldn’t disagree with that. However, I believe that’s priced into this number already. Plus, considering the Owls rank outside the top 115 in a vast majority of advanced offensive metrics I utilize weekly, I would argue that playing Rice doesn’t really prepare a team for much – no offense, Owls fans. Playing Navy before meeting Army is a solid prep, but the Black Knights have the better quarterback and are much more efficient than the Midshipmen thus far.
The Golden Hurricane have not had a bye yet, which means they’ve played seven straight games ahead of this one. That fatigue eventually wears teams down, and playing an Army offense that will run right into your face time and time again isn’t exactly an ideal situation for a fatigued defense. This Tulsa stop-unit has been strong and opportunistic this season, but yards can still be found against this bunch given their rank of 82nd in PPA per rush, 65th in rush success and 108th in stuff rate outside of garbage time since Week 2. Navy rushed for 386 yards on 5.8 yards per attempt against this defense, after all, and Rice ran for 289 on 5.4 per carry.
Army sits third nationally in PPA per rush, fourth in rush success, sixth in stuff rate and havoc allowed, 10th in line yards and 21st in standard downs PPA outside of garbage time since Week 2, so I have a hard time seeing this Tulsa defense stopping the Black Knights’ ground game – regardless of who the Golden Hurricane just played.
The other side of the ball is the biggest concern when backing Army. The Black Knights are poor defensively by every sense of the word. However, Tulsa QB Baylor Hayes has been known to put the ball in harm’s way (20 turnover-worthy plays since the start of last year), while the offense hasn’t been all that good at staying ahead of the sticks or converting third downs.
Finally, Army could have revenge on their mind in this one. When these teams met last year, the Black Knights held a double-digit, third-quarter lead before blowing it and losing by one. Even with their defensive struggles in mind, I love Army catching points here.
Army vs Tulsa prediction: Army +2 (-110) available at Fanatics Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to pk.
