The North Texas Mean Green and Tulsa Golden Hurricane will meet in their American Conference opener on Thursday night, as both look to build on respectable non-conference schedules. This one is tough to call since we are currently uncertain of the status of Tulsa starting QB Baylor Hayes. Per Tulsa coach Tre Lamb, he was at practice Monday and would be likely to play if the game was Saturday, but given the game is Thursday, he’s listed as a true game-time decision.
I’m not quite sure the Tulsa offense is much better with Hayes than it is Dexter Williams, though. Hayes had 15 turnover-worthy plays last year, while he had just a 58% completion percentage and took 24 sacks. Meanwhile, Williams hasn’t really been a full-time starter throughout his career as a nomad quarterback. Now on his fourth program, he hasn’t had more than 150 dropbacks in any season. Further, his 14-5 touchdown-to-interception rate is solid, but he has 10 turnover-worthy plays to just nine big-time throws, and he’s not all that accurate. Drops have been an issue for him throughout his career, and it’s been an issue for Hayes, too. In fact, it’s been a major problem this year for the Golden Hurricane, as both quarterbacks have suffered from five drops each on 60 or fewer attempts. That puts each of them in the bottom 15 nationally in drop percentage.
UNT’s Tayven Jackson has been quite good under center this year. While he has four turnover-worthy plays, he carries a completion percentage north of 74%, and his pass-catchers only have three drops. He leads a unit that is 11th in PPA per play, 21st in success rate and top-40 in scoring, which gives the Mean Green a significant edge over Tulsa’s offense. The Golden Hurricane have the better defense from a metrics perspective, but they also have had the easier group of offensive opponents. This is not a game I’m running to bet, but it’s the Mean Green or pass for me here.
North Texas vs Tulsa prediction: North Texas Mean Green +1.5 (-115) at the time of publishing. Playable to pk.
