In the midst of an unexpected four-game winning streak, the Illinois Fighting Illini will head to Los Angeles to play the undefeated UCLA Bruins. Coming into this contest, Illinois has beaten Michigan State and Maryland on the road – wins that aren’t all that impressive – but they also beat Oregon 21-10 and Nebraska 24-12, both as home underdogs. Meanwhile, UCLA continues trudging along. The Bruins are not only perfect in terms of wins and losses, but they’re undefeated against the spread at 9-0 as well.
A healthy Katin Houser is exactly what this Illinois offense needs, but I’m not sure him being back will be enough against the UCLA defense. The Bruins are second in PPA per pass and first nationally in pass success rate allowed outside of garbage time since Week 5, while they lead the country in opposing third-down conversion rate (26%) and sit top-10 in opposing standard downs efficiency. Not to mention, they generate havoc at a top-three rate, and they’re holding their opponents to just 1.88 points per trip inside the 40-yard line over the last six weeks.
Illinois’ defense couldn’t be any more different. The Illini are 114th in PPA per play and 107th in success rate allowed since the beginning of October, while they’re 117th in opposing third-down conversion rate and outside the top 115 on standard downs. That should help UCLA seeing as the Bruins will be a bit shorthanded on the offensive line. Still, I trust Bob Chesney and his operation, and I also trust the dynamic running back duo of Wayne Knight and Anthony Woods, who both average over six yards per attempt. This Illinois defense is outside the top 90 in havoc generated, stuff rate and rush efficiency over the last six weeks, so even with the injuries across the line, I still expect UCLA to move the ball effectively.
This is Illinois’ first trip out west this year. Their two trips out west in previous seasons have not gone particularly well, and the Illini haven’t been all that reliable in the road underdog role since the start of last year.
Illinois vs UCLA prediction: UCLA Bruins -10 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number to -115.
