It doesn’t matter whether it’s FCS or FBS, the North Dakota State Bison just keep winning. In their first season at the top level of college football, they’re a perfect 5-0 SU, and their only two losses against the number were as a -27.5 favorite (they won by 21) and a -41.5 favorite (they won 38-0). In fact, they’ve blanked two opponents – Wyoming and Fordham – while holding Jacksonville State to just seven and Sacramento State to 10. Their biggest test was a road trip to Air Force, which they won 38-32. Now, they’re going on the road for the third time in four games to play in Las Vegas against UNLV, who has bounced back from their awful showing against UNT with 77 combined points against Akron and Cal the last two weeks.
The Bison’s metrics stand out on paper, as they’re top-15 in multiple defensive metrics, including top-two in PPA per play, explosiveness, points per opportunity, passing downs PPA and PPA per pass, but you have to consider the context. Sagarin ranks their strength of schedule 173rd, which means there are 35 FCS teams with a harder schedule than them to this point.
North Dakota State plays at an extremely slow pace, but outside of the Air Force game, which had 70 combined points, the Bison haven’t really had a reason to play fast. In a more competitive game, there will be a need for more pace and an urgency to get the ball downfield, especially against a UNLV team that sits top-half nationally in tempo. For what it’s worth, there were a handful of explosive plays and scores in that game at Air Force, and against this Dan Mullen-led UNLV offense, I see that happening again this weekend. In fact, the Rebels are one of the more explosive teams in the country, as they’re top-10 in plays of at least 30, 40 and 50 yards. Conversely, they give up a good bit of explosives themselves, sitting outside the top 120 in plays of at least 20 yards.
This total feels slightly too low given the context added to North Dakota State’s body of work. I like both teams to at least hit the low-to-mid 20s, so give me the over.
North Dakota State vs UNLV prediction: Over 47.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 48 (-115).
