The price is the weakness on this one. DraftKings is dealing 44.5 at -118, while FanDuel, BetMGM and BetRivers sit at 43.5, and DraftKings itself was at 43.5 as recently as Tuesday morning. In a game this low, I'll pay the extra juice for the extra point.
These are two of the worst offenses in the country. Utah State is scoring 14.0 points per game, 136th of 138 FBS teams, and Washington State is 120th at 19.0, which drops to 11.8 once the 48 it put up on FCS Duquesne comes out. Utah State's games have gone under the closing total in four of five.
The mechanism is a Washington State offense rebuilding on a short week. It scored 6 against Fresno State on Saturday, head coach Kirby Moore has taken over play-calling from offensive coordinator Matt Miller, and Moore said everyone will get reps at quarterback in practice. The counter is that both defenses rank 81st at 25.0 points allowed per game, but even splitting the difference between what each offense scores and what each defense allows lands this game at 41.5.
The forecast in Logan is clear with light wind, which leaves this game to two offenses that have not shown they can carry one. The market agrees, having worked this total down from 44.5 at FanDuel and 46.5 at BetRivers on Sunday to 43.5 at both, which is where most of the board still sits.
Washington State vs Utah State prediction: Under 44.5 (-118) available at time of publishing. Playable to 44 (-115)
