Navy has covered once in five games this season, and that is the case against this pick. I'm on the Midshipmen anyway at +7, which only BetMGM (-112) and BetRivers (-118) are dealing, while DraftKings and FanDuel sit at +6.5. The matchup that decides this is Navy's run game against UTSA's run defense. The Midshipmen run for 247.8 yards per game against FBS opponents, fifth in the country, and quarterback Jackson Gutierrez ran for 232 yards in last week's 34-26 win over Tulsa, while UTSA allows 186.2 rushing yards per game to FBS teams (113th). Navy's defense holds FBS teams to 111.0 rushing yards a game, tied for 26th in the land.
Running the ball shortens the game, and fewer possessions make seven points harder to cover. UTSA can score, at 28.6 points per game against FBS teams, but its offensive line is banged up: usual starting guard Ben Rios missed the USF game, and coach Jeff Traylor said afterward, "We limped home with those tackles. UTSA is 5-1, but its last two wins came by two points against Rice as a 12-point favorite and by seven against USF last Thursday. A public projection has UTSA winning by about three, and the +7 only showed up at BetMGM on Monday and BetRivers on Tuesday.
Navy vs UTSA prediction: Navy +7 (-112) available at time of publishing. Playable to -120.
