Wake Forest has fallen short in both games it has played as a favorite this season, at -24.5 against Akron and -3 at Purdue, and that is the honest weakness in laying points with the Demon Deacons here. The number has bounced around all week, as -12.5 is back at DraftKings for -112 and at FanDuel for -115, while BetMGM and BetRivers sit at -13.
The cleanest comparison between these teams is Miami, which both have played at home. Wake Forest lost that game by 13 on September 18, while Stanford lost it 45-6 two weeks earlier. The one time Stanford has left home this season, it lost 35-7 at Duke, and Davis Warren was held to 151 passing yards.
The schedule makes that road problem harder. Stanford played Georgia Tech at 7:30 PM PT on Saturday and now travels roughly 2,300 miles for a noon ET kickoff, which lands at 9:00 AM on its body clock, with Notre Dame up next. Warren is the counter after throwing for 396 yards against Georgia Tech without an interception, but that came at home, and Stanford's defense is still allowing 33.5 points per game.
Wake Forest comes in off a 30-27 win at #16 Louisville, where Carlos Hernandez caught nine passes for 194 yards, and the Deacons blocked a game-tying field goal with 15 seconds left. The market has been quiet since this line posted, with the spread moving between 12.5 and 13.5 at the books I use and the total drifting a point lower to 53.5.
Stanford vs Wake Forest prediction: Wake Forest Demon Deacons -12.5 (-112) available at time of publishing. Playable to -13 (-110).
