Virginia has lost three of its last four games, and after Saturday, it could very well be four of its last five. The Cavaliers may be able to keep things respectable, but that hinges on how much success they can find against a Wake Forest defense that has been one of the better units in the ACC. The Demon Deacons didn't stumble into the Top 15. They earned it by consistently putting teams away and doing so with authority. While familiarity between conference foes can sometimes close the gap, I like Wake Forest to take care of business and cover the 12.5-point spread.
The Cavaliers' last four games have all come within ACC play, and Virginia failed to score more than 28 points in any of them. Worse yet, three of those four outings resulted in point totals between seven and 16. If the Cavaliers hope to upset Wake Forest, or even keep this game within the number, they'll likely need a far better offensive performance. The Demon Deacons average 37.4 points per game and have made a habit of handling conference opponents with authority. While Virginia's ACC matchups have largely been close affairs, Wake has been blowing teams out. Excluding its loss to top-ranked Miami, the Demon Deacons have outscored their other four ACC opponents 166-51, winning those games by a combined 115 points.
Although this rivalry runs deep and Virginia's defense has been nearly as stingy as Wake Forest's, the Demon Deacons have proven they possess another gear. Time and again, they've found ways to create separation, especially against ACC competition. That's a trend I expect to continue on Saturday, as Wake Forest pulls away in the second half and covers the 12.5-points.
Wake Forest vs Virginia prediction: Wake Forest Demon Deacons -12.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -13.5 (-115).
