I've gone back and forth with this game on the total. I think I have finally settled, and I let the market decide it for me. The number on the total felt low when I saw it at first glance, but then I remembered how good Western Michigans defense has been so far this year.
The market helped shape my thoughts on this one. There has been steady push to the over on this since it first opened. In the last two days, some books have moved another two points. Fanduel still has a 49.5, so I am going to play that. Many other books have a 50.5, so make sure to shop around.
Every closing total Boise State has played to this season was higher than this one, and every one of them went over. Oregon closed at 51.5 and produced 61. Memphis closed at 54.5 and produced 58. South Dakota closed at 60.5 and produced 62. The Broncos average 461 yards a game, and 49.5 is asking their games to look nothing like they have looked.
The mechanism is Boise State's defense, or what is left of it. Spencer Danielson listed starting safety Derek Ganter as likely out on Monday and edge rusher Jayden Virgin-Morgan as questionable — a safety and a pass rusher, the two pieces an opposing offense most wants missing. Western Michigan was picked by nine league coaches to win the MAC and just scored 28 on the road at Rice, but the offense has looked much better since Week 1 against Michigan. Look for that offensive surge to continue with Boise missing two defenders.
Boise State vs Western Michigan prediction: Over 49.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 50.
