I don’t want to be the one to badger Wisconsin fans, but it could be said that their team has not shown the offensive explosiveness necessary to consistently blow teams out. Through their first two games, the Badgers are averaging just 24.5 points per game and rank outside of the top 90 nationally in both total offense and passing offense.
Covering a spread this large requires Wisconsin not only to win, but to win by a minimum of three touchdowns and two field goals. That becomes difficult when the offense plays at a slower pace and focuses on ball control rather than quick-strike scoring drives. The Badgers’ average time of possession is under 27 minutes per game, another indication that their offense is still searching for its rhythm. Additionally, they are 0-2 so far against the spread, helping the argument that oddsmakers may still be valuing the Badgers more on reputation than on current production.
The Eagles also bring some qualities that help them as a large underdog looking to cover. They own a +2 turnover margin, ranking among some of the better-known teams nationally in that category. All 3 of their opponents so far this season have been FBS teams and Eastern still managed to average almost 19 points per game. It’s very likely that Wisconsin has a decisive lead in the 4th quarter, maybe somewhere near 14-23 points, and shifts their focus from tacking on points to simply securing the win and avoiding injuries. In any scenario, the Eagles have a legitimate path to staying within 24 points even in a relatively one-sided contest.
Wisconsin vs Eastern Michigan prediction: Eastern Michigan +24.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +24.
