Wisconsin returns home this Saturday after suffering its worst loss of the season, and the matchup sets up beautifully for a bounce-back spot. The Badgers have not been an explosive offense, averaging just 23.6 points per game, but they'll face a Rutgers defense that has struggled in nearly every major category. The Scarlet Knights allow 32.6 points per game and surrender 418 yards per contest, and nearly 195 of those yards come on the ground. For a Wisconsin team that prefers a physical approach and controlling games at the line of scrimmage, this is an opportunity to dictate tempo from the opening drive.
Rutgers' offense has produced respectable numbers on paper, averaging 27.8 points per game, but those figures come against a schedule that includes some favorable spots. This week, they'll be tasked with moving the ball against a Wisconsin defense that allows only 17.1 points and 290 total yards per game while ranking among the better run defenses in the Big Ten. If the Badgers can slow Antwan Raymond and force Rutgers into obvious passing situations, long drives are not their forte, and Wisconsin will likely capitalize.
History also favors Wisconsin, which has won six straight meetings against Rutgers, including a 42-7 victory in the most recent matchup. Coming off an embarrassing shutout and facing one of the nation's weaker defenses, this feels like a get-right spot, not to mention Wisconsin is a perfect 4-0 at home. Rutgers may have a couple injury concerns, wide receiver KJ Duff may not be 100%, which makes a Scarlet Knights’ shootout even less likely. A score in the neighborhood of 34-13 would not be surprising, making Wisconsin -16.5 look just right.
Wisconsin vs Rutgers prediction: Wisconsin Badgers -16.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -17.5 (-115).
