College Football Week 6 Best Bets: Thursday, October 8

September is great because the college football season resumes in full at the beginning of the month, but October is equally as awesome, if not more, because we get college football throughout the week this month. On Thursday in Week 6, we will be treated to four conference games, two from Conference USA, one from the American and one from the Sun Belt.

Ahead of Thursday's slate, here is my favorite bet of the bunch, while you can get our CFB picks for more tips and analysis on the entire Week 6 slate, as well as every FBS game throughout the season.

CFB Week 6 Thursday best bet: Arkansas State Red Wolves ML over South Alabama Jaguars (-111)

Odds courtesy of ProphetX at the time of publishing. Playable on the ML up to -150 or on the spread to -3 (-110).

South Alabama may have the better record, both straight up and ATS, but I believe Arkansas State is the better overall team. South Alabama’s strength of schedule ranks 129th by Sagarin, while Arkansas State’s ranks 75th. It makes sense; the Jaguars have played an FCS opponent, Tulane and Ohio squads that aren’t up to the level as their previous teams in recent years, Kentucky as their only power-conference opponent and a ULM squad that is at or near the bottom of anyone’s power ratings. That’s not to say the Red Wolves have played a murder’s row of opponents, but they opened the season on the road in Memphis before they hosted an FCS team, played at TCU, hosted the defending CUSA champions in Kennesaw State and then played at Louisiana last week. For what it’s worth, three of Arkansas State’s four FBS opponents rank top-25 in PPA either offensively or defensively outside of garbage time; none of South Alabama’s previous opponents are near that on either side of the ball. 

It’s hard to get South Alabama’s game last week out of my head. They may have won and covered, but they allowed a winless team that sits 120th or worse in most major offensive statistics to score 35 points and accumulate nearly 450 yards, which tied their season-high in points – set against an FCS team in a loss. ULM had not scored more than 20 points in any FBS contest prior to that. What does that say about South Alabama’s defense? For reference, the Jaguars are 133rd in yards per play, 125th in PPA per play and 128th in points per scoring opportunity allowed. Moreover, they’re especially bad against the run, where they sit 129th in PPA per rush, 114th in rushing success rate and 137th in rushing explosiveness allowed outside of garbage time (CollegeFootballData).

The Red Wolves have a steady stable of running backs that can exploit the South Alabama run defense, as can Trey Owens – a dual-threat quarterback that started his career at Texas after being recruited to Austin as a four-star. The talent is obviously there with Owens, and while he can be erratic at times, he throws a very good deep ball – none of his five turnover-worthy plays have been on passes of 20+ yards per PFF. 

Both teams played on Saturday in Week 5, so this is a mutually-short week. I give the situational edge to the home team in those instances, and when you combine that with the fact that the South Alabama defense will likely be the worst unit on the field Thursday, taking a cheap money-line price on the hosts makes too much sense. I actually would make the Red Wolves at least -3 here. 

Our handicappers are on a 12-0 CFB best bet run since Saturday of Week 5!