College Football Week 6 Player Props: Best Bets & Picks

Saturday’s Week 6 college football slate is jam-packed all day long with must-see matchups, many of which already carry postseason significance. To get you set for the action, we’ve provided college football picks, best bets and CFB parlays throughout the week, but now it’s time to dig into the player prop market. Here are my three favorite player props on Saturday’s slate, as I look to improve on my 10-5 run since Week 1. 

CFB Week 6 Player Prop: Re’Shaun Sanford II (HOU) over 54.5 rushing yards (-114)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to 59.5. 

Re’Shaun Sanford II and Makhi Hughes split carries for Houston, but both should eat against this Kansas State rush defense. The Wildcats are 115th in PPA per rush and dead last in rush explosiveness allowed outside of garbage time (CollegeFootballData) despite a strength of schedule that Sagarin ranks 131st. In K-State’s only game against a somewhat respectable offense, they gave up 271 rushing yards to Cincinnati, including 7.1 yards per attempt and multiple runs of at least 15 yards. Both Bearcat running backs eclipsed the 120-yard mark on 16 carries or less. 

Hughes has history with coach Willie Fritz dating back to their days at Tulane, but Sanford has looked very good lately. Hughes has gotten the first carry in both recent games, but Sanford has come in as early as the second play of the game behind him, so this is truly a 1A-1B situation. The workload is there; Houston is top-35 in rush rate outside of garbage time, and Sanford has carried the ball at least 17 times in consecutive games. Against what’s been a bad run defense against a horrible schedule, Sanford should get to at least 60 yards here, especially if Houston plays with any sort of lead, or if the heavy forecasted gusts impact passing. He’s also the cheaper of the two backs.

Check out my CFB Week 6 best bets for Saturday’s mega slate

CFB Week 6 Player Prop: Dylan Raiola (ORE) longest completion over 44.5 yards (-115)

Odds courtesy of bet365 at the time of publishing. Playable to 49.5. 

Typically when a team loses their starting, future-NFL quarterback, there is a massive downgrade to the backup. That’s not the case with Oregon, as some have even argued that Dylan Raiola might be a better fit than Dante Moore in the Ducks offense. Regardless of if Raiola is a better fit, he’s seemingly a great fit. He came in after Moore’s vicious hit and seamlessly led the Ducks offense to 31 of his own points, throwing for 289 yards in fewer than three full quarters with a 62-yard pass in the process.

Raiola loves to push the ball down the field, and he’s pretty good at it. He had multiple completions of at least 40 yards against Big Ten defenses last year, and he’s relatively accurate on those deep passes. Given his comfort under center, I expect Raiola to piece up a UCLA defense that is outside the top 100 in PPA per pass, passing success and passing explosiveness. In their two most competitive games this year, the Bruins gave up a 49-yard pass to Cal’s Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, while Purdue’s Ryan Browne had a 75-yard touchdown pass.

For what it’s worth, these don’t have to be air yards. Yards after catch work just as well as a bomb down the right hash, and the Ducks pass-catchers are fully capable of creating with the ball in their hands. It was Oregon RB Dierre Hill Jr. that did a majority of the work on Raiola’s 62-yard completion against USC after all, and Browne’s 75-yard score was a catch-and-run against the UCLA defense. Regardless of the method, the Raiola Ducks will test the UCLA secondary all day, and the Bruins will have to prove they can stop it.

We have CFB anytime touchdown picks for the Week 6 slate

CFB Week 6 Player Prop: Dilin Jones (LSU) over 91.5 rushing yards (-115)

Odds courtesy of Caesar at the time of publishing. Playable to 99.5. 

Rain or shine, LSU’s rushing attack should thrive on Saturday against a Kentucky defense that has been flat-out bad against the run. The Wildcats are 85th in yards per rush (CFBStats), 91st in PPA per rush and 107th in rushing success rate allowed outside of garbage time, and they let their opponents stay ahead of the sticks far too often. Moreover, they’re not winning the line of scrimmage, paving the way for their opponents to run any which way. That’s something LSU RB Dilin Jones can exploit as one of the 15 best backs in the country in yards after contact and missed tackles forced (PFF). 

Jones has surpassed the century mark twice this year, and the three times he didn’t reach 80 were the three games in which didn’t play a full allotment of minutes. I don’t think that’s going to be an issue here. Jones should be heavily involved from the jump, and wet, windy weather only helps his usage rates against a depleted Kentucky defense. 

Get our full LSU vs Kentucky prediction, including a five-star best bet