College Football Picks

The Sun Belt championship will be decided this Friday when the Troy Trojans take on the James Madison Dukes. Troy finished its season with a record of 8-4 and a conference record of 6-2. The Trojans finished in first place in the Sun Belt West after a 28-18 win over Southern Mississippi during the last week of the season. Quarterback Goose Crowder threw for 285 yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception in the victory.

Meanwhile, James Madison finished its season 11-1 with a conference record of 8-0. The Dukes won the Sun Belt East, finishing their season with 10 straight wins. Their final win of the season was a 59-10 beat down against Coastal Carolina. Quarterback Alonza Barnett III threw for 207 yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception in the win. The Dukes’ only loss this season came back in the beginning of September at Louisville at a score of 28-14. James Madison is ranked as the 25th-best team in the country heading into this weekend, and still has a small chance to make the College Football Playoff. However, the Dukes are going to require some help and a dominant win this weekend.

The conference championship game is set to be played at Bridgeforth Stadium in Harrisonburg, VA, and the forecast call for a cold one. The weather is projected to be 30 degrees around kickoff and will only get colder the longer into the night this game goes. I don’t expect the cold to bother the Dukes in this game. Barnett is a veteran quarterback in this program, as the junior has thrown for more than 5,000 yards in his career. If conditions are not the best for throwing the football this weekend, Barnett will be able to rely on his legs (as evidenced by his 459 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns this season). Also paired with Barnett is running back Wayne Knight. Knight was able to eclipse 1,000 yards rushing this season, and he has totaled 8 touchdowns.

Troy’s rushing game has been significantly less effective this season than James Madison. This team is not built for the poor conditions, with their head coach, Gerad Parker, stating that the team doesn’t even have gear for colder weather. While I do know this was obvious sarcasm, Troy is coming into this game off a short week to play against a high-powered offense in cold weather conditions. Look for JMU to make a statement in an attempt to claim its spot in the CFP.

Sun Belt Championship prediction: James Madison Dukes -23 over Troy Trojans (-110) is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Arguably the most consequential game of the weekend comes in New Orleans, where the AAC title game will take place on Friday between North Texas and Tulane. With both teams currently ranked ahead of James Madison in the most recent College Football Playoff rankings, this game essentially functions as a play-in game for the right to claim the Group of 5 slot in the playoff. Both teams are currently in the midst of excellent seasons, and these are a couple of offenses that should see success in this one, as evident by the sky-high total. However, even though Tulane is going to be an attractive home underdog for many, I can only look toward North Texas as my preferred side on Friday. 

This is a difficult game to handicap given that both teams have coaches that are leaving each program for Power 4 jobs after the season. Setting that fact aside, Tulane is not a team that I’ve been overly impressed with in big spots this season, even as the Green Wave have overachieved compared to preseason expectations. Theoretically, Tulane should be able to score on this North Texas defense, but the Mean Green have a strong pass defense and the Green Wave are just 86th in rushing success rate, which is how you can have success against North Texas. On the other side, the Tulane defense is certainly not the strength of the team, and the Green Wave will have a difficult task on their hands against Drew Mestemaker (29 touchdowns to just 4 interceptions this season) and a Mean Green offense that is elite in all areas. In fact, North Texas is a top 5 unit in success rate, EPA per play, early downs EPA, quality drives created and points per drive. This is a team that can beat you on the ground and through the air, which bodes well for a matchup against a Tulane team has not fared well when stepping up in class against quality offenses this season, as we saw against the likes of Ole Miss and UTSA. And even in a win over Memphis last month, Tulane’s below average pass defense (97th in passing success rate allowed, 86th in 3rd down success rate allowed) struggled to slow down the Tigers, to the tune of 368 passing yards allowed. With that in mind, as long as Mestemaker plays a fairly clean game, there should be plenty of avenues for North Texas to put up plenty of points and force Tulane’s offense to play from behind and consistently score to keep up — a role that the Green Wave have struggled with this season. I’ll back the visitors to outscore the hosts and win the AAC, capping off a storybook season in the process. 

North Texas vs Tulane prediction: North Texas ML (-125) available at time of publishing. Playable to -130.

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While both of these offenses have the capability to score in bunches, my lean on the total is this game is on the under. The forecast is calling for rain in this game, which could certainly lead to both sides looking to lean on their advantages in the trenches in the early going. There’s the also the fact that this is easily the biggest game in program history for both teams, and we can expect each side to start off a bit slow. Each coaching staff will be very keen on not making the first mistake, and it wouldn’t surprise me if we actually had some punts in the early going before both teams settle in and start trading scores. This is not a play for the faint of heart, but there are plenty of avenues for this game to go under this monster total.

Under 66.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number. 

When people hear the name Boise State, especially in mid-major football, there’s an automatic assumption that the Broncos will thrive in championship settings. They have earned that reputation over decades, and because of it the market routinely prices Boise with an inflated premium. That’s exactly what we’re seeing here. UNLV enters the Mountain West Championship as the side everyone insists “shouldn’t be here” because of how chaotic the 4-way tiebreaker scenario was. Add in the Rebels’ close calls this season — they barely survived Air Force, Miami (OH), Utah State and even Idaho State — and the public instinctively leans toward Boise State.

But the number tells a different story. Boise State beat UNLV by 25 earlier this season as a 13-point favorite. Now, on a neutral field with a championship on the line, the line is shorter and the Rebels are only small underdogs. That signals respect for UNLV and hints that oddsmakers anticipate a different type of fight this time around. UNLV’s offense gives them a live-dog profile, and Boise State hasn’t consistently validated the premium attached to their name this year. Forget the points — I’ll take UNLV straight up.

UNLV vs Boise State prediction: UNLV ML (+145) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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If UNLV is going to win, it must do it with offense. That has been the Rebels’ identity all season long: fast tempo, chunk plays and a scoring approach that forces opponents out of their comfort zones. Their defense isn’t built to anchor low-scoring games, so if they fall into a grinder, they are in trouble. The first meeting between these 2 teams showcased exactly that dynamic: Boise State and UNLV combined for 87 points in a high-octane shootout.

Boise State will score — it has been consistent enough offensively to assume it will get into the mid-20s or beyond. That alone puts this total nearly halfway home. The Rebels don’t win by slowing teams down; they win by trading scores and turning games into races to the mid-30s. One or 2 explosive drives from either side pushes this total over the edge. Given the matchup, the styles and the previous encounter between these 2 teams, asking for 58 points is reasonable. This has shootout written all over it.

UNLV vs Boise State pick: Over 57.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Western Michigan has been the hottest team in the MAC, winning 8 of 9 and cashing spreads at a 6-2-1 clip. That streak has created a massive wave of market confidence, and bettors continue piling onto the Broncos. But the line tells a different story: despite all that momentum, WMU is laying less than a field goal in the MAC title game. That’s the first indicator the market doesn’t fully trust them in this one.

Miami (OH) comes in off dominant wins over Ball State and Buffalo, but what happened before those results is pivotal. The RedHawks suffered a blowout loss against Toledo and a loss at Ohio, where the market was backing them in a revenge spot. From a distance, Miami looks like a team that can’t grapple with any decent opposition that the MAC has to offer. That makes WMU laying less than a field goal appealing. And then there is what really matters: last year’s embarrassment in this exact championship spot. The RedHawks were routed, and the market remembers that — but this is their chance to correct that. Western Michigan is priced at its ceiling, while Miami is undervalued. This is the chance to move in hard on the RedHawks. I’m backing them to win the MAC.

Miami (OH) vs Western Michigan prediction: Miami (OH) ML (+120) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Amid all of the conference realignment and transfer portal chaos, the SEC Championship consists of a matchup that college football fans know all too well. On Saturday, the Georgia Bulldogs and the Alabama Crimson Tide will battle for a conference championship at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, where the Bulldogs just played last week against Georgia Tech. As it stands, no matter who wins this game, Alabama and Georgia will have accounted for 11 of the last 12 SEC champions, and this will be the 4th time these two programs have met for a conference title in that span. 

The last time Alabama met Georgia in this spot, the Tide knocked off the #1 Bulldogs, which ultimately put the Tide into the then-4-team College Football Playoff and booted the ‘Dawgs out. Since then, the Tide and the ‘Dawgs have met twice in a regular season setting, both of which resulted in Alabama wins under Kalen DeBoer. As you probably know, Kirby Smart is just 1-7 SU against Alabama since he took over as the head coach in Athens.

I picked Alabama to win the SEC Championship (and the National Championship) back before the season started, and I have no reason to jump off the boat now – even with the Tide putting me through the ringer seemingly every week. When Alabama went into Athens and snapped Georgia’s 33-game, nearly 6-year home winning streak back in September, the Bulldogs were laying 2.5 points. Fast forward to this upcoming matchup, and you will see Georgia is favored by that same margin. Well, on the surface it looks the same, but being favored by 2.5 points on a neutral would mean oddsmakers have Georgia around a 5.5-point favorite – give or take a half-point or so – if this game was played in Athens this weekend. I simply disagree with that, as I have this game much closer to a pick ‘em on a neutral. 

There’s not much to pick apart with these teams that you don’t already know. Simply put, these are two of the best teams in college football on both sides of the line of scrimmage. By the numbers, Georgia has been more efficient offensively over the last month and some change, but the Bulldogs have played a worse collection of defenses in that span compared to the Tide. However, on the opposite side of the ball and against a similarly mediocre collection of offenses, Alabama has the better efficiency metrics of late. For reference, the Tide are top-5 in PPA per play and points allowed per quality drive since Week 10, which includes top-15 marks on standard downs and passing downs, as well as against both the run and the pass. As a cherry on top, the Tide are top-15 in havoc generated over that span, and they are slightly better at preventing touchdowns than the Bulldogs on the same amount of red-zone trips allowed this season. 

It might be beneficial to wait for a potential 3 to pop in the market, but if one does appear, it won’t last very long. All things considered, I’ll lean to Alabama at the current price. 

SEC Championship prediction: Alabama Crimson Tide +2.5 over Georgia Bulldogs (+100) available at the time of publishing. Playable to +2.

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When these teams met in Athens in September, the total closed at 54 points and the game stayed under by 9. As such, oddsmakers adjusted the total to 47.5 or 48 – depending on where you shop – for this game. It will be the lowest point total in this head-to-head series since the 2018 National Championship, a game in which the total closed at 45.5. With a final score of 26-23 in favor of Alabama, the total went over due to 9 points scored in overtime. As such, every single meeting with Alabama has gone over this number in Kirby Smart’s tenure aside from the most recent meeting in Athens.

Despite the previous streak of 7 overs, I like this matchup to stay under the total for a few reasons. First, both of these offenses are very methodical and don’t carry a ton of explosivity. Alabama and Georgia mutually reside outside the top 100 in seconds per play, outside the top 50 in explosiveness per play on the season, and 90th or worse in explosiveness per play since Week 10. Second, on the other side of the ball, the Tide and the ‘Dawgs mutually sit in the top 15 in plays allowed of at least 20 yards. While Georgia has been better at limiting explosives on a per play basis of late, the ‘Dawgs have been excellent at limiting passing explosives, and the Tide have been just as good at limiting rushing explosives over the 5 weeks – which is where the strengths of those offenses lie, respectively. 

Finally, there’s plenty more at stake for both of these teams. It’s hard to imagine either team dropping out of the CFP with a loss here, so – while the SEC Championship still holds value – I’m not sure either coaching staff is going to put its players in harm’s way when as many as 4 more games lie ahead in a quest for a national title. Look for this to be a lower-scoring, defensive game controlled more by methodical offensive drives and time of possession than points.

Georgia vs Alabama prediction: Under 48 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable to 47.

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The Duke Blue Devils and Virginia Cavaliers battle for the ACC Championship less than a month removed from a regular season matchup that saw the Cavs dominate 34-17, limiting Duke to a whopping 42 rushing yards. While the cliché of “it’s hard to beat a team twice” might hold up in some cases, Virginia won the first meeting comfortably, and I wouldn’t be shocked if we saw a similar result. Duke squeaked into this game on the fifth tiebreaker and have allowed 33.3 points per game to their final 6 opponents of the season in a 3-3 stretch. On the contrary, the Virginia defense has produced results consistently this season behind a strong pass rush that averages 2.5 sacks per game. 

The Cavaliers rank top-30 in both success rate and net points per drive defensively. Duke has found itself in some shootouts this season, but proved to struggle against the Virginia front seven last time out. While the Virginia defense has been solid all year, it’s tough to say the same for a Duke unit that ranks 112th in defensive success rate and 114th in quality drive rate allowed. The Blue Devils primarily struggle against the pass which doesn’t bode well against Chandler Morris and co. If Morris can limit the turnovers — 2 of his 7 total INTs came against Duke — then Virginia has shown they are built to handle this Duke squad. I’ll take Virginia to cover the spread and claim the ACC title.

ACC Championship prediction: Virginia Cavaliers -4 over Duke Blue Devils (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

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The under has cashed in 7 consecutive Virginia games, while the Duke Blue Devils are 4-1 to the over in their last 5 entering the ACC Championship game. These teams met just a few weeks back in a regular season matchup that finished with a combined total of 51, going under the closing total of 60. In the first meeting, Duke struggled mightily to get the run game going, posting a total of 42 rushing yards on 1.8 YPC. This time around, I expect the Blue Devils to lean on the passing game and let QB Darian Mensah loose. The sophomore QB has been slinging it this season with a 28:4 TD:INT ratio and has the Blue Devils ranking top-30 in EPA/dropback.

On the flipside, Virginia found success last time out in all 3 phases, posting over 310 passing yards and 220 rushing yards in the first meeting against the Blue Devils. It’s hard to expect anything different this time around as Duke has surrendered over 33 points per game throughout the final half of the season behind a defensive unit that ranks 112th in success rate and 114th in quality drive rate allowed. With all things considered, I’ve got the ACC Championship going over.

ACC Championship prediction: Over 57.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

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