College Football Picks

Kicking off Saturday’s College Football Playoff action at noon ET is one of the more exciting matchups of the first round between the Miami Hurricanes and the Texas A&M Aggies. Coincidentally, both of these teams beat Notre Dame early in the year, which ultimately is the reason why the Fighting Irish were left out. Miami finished the season 10-2 SU and 7-5 ATS while Texas A&M is 11-1 SU and 5-7 ATS, but it’s worth mentioning that both teams were often double-digit favorites. In games with a spread of 7 points or less, Texas A&M is 4-2 ATS while Miami is 3-0. The only time Miami was listed as an underdog was in its Week 1 win over Notre Dame. The Hurricanes closed around +3 in that game, which is about where they sit right now ahead of their playoff road trip to College Station.

Texas A&M has an impressive resume from a win/loss perspective, but when you dig deeper into what the Aggies have done this year, you’ll see that they didn’t play very many of the top SEC teams. Given the home-field advantage, the Aggies are rightful favorites, but it feels like a couple too many points – especially when considering the turnover issues the Aggies have displayed lately. They finished the regular season outside the top 100 in turnover rate, and they average 2.3 giveaways per game over their last 3 – which ranks near the bottom of the FBS over that stretch of games. In comparison, Miami is top-25 in turnover margin this year and averages just 0.7 giveaways per game over its last 3. Taking care of the ball will be crucial in a matchup between 2 top-10 defenses in terms of havoc generated outside of garbage time this year, as both stop-units rank top-25 in sacks and tackles for loss this year. Because of that, I feel more confident in Carson Beck in this spot considering he has half the amount of turnover-worthy plays as Marcel Reed. In fact, Reed has 11 turnover-worthy plays since Week 9 alone.

Reed can negate some of his turnover woes with his ability to escape from the pocket in the face of pressure and make defenses pay with his athleticism as a runner, but Miami has been especially good against mobile quarterbacks this year. In fact, FSU’s Tommy Castellanos was the only mobile quarterback that did damage against Miami’s defense, and most of that rushing production came in the 4th quarter when the game was all but decided. 

Not only has Miami been better in the turnover department, but the Hurricanes also have one of the most efficient red-zone offenses in the country. They put points on the board on over 92% of red-zone trips, and they find the end zone over 71% of the time – which puts them top-25 in both categories. Meanwhile, the Aggies are 76th in red-zone scoring and 43rd in red-zone touchdown rate. Miami should have a solid edge here, especially considering Texas A&M’s defense is 131st in red-zone scoring while allowing opponents to put points on the board on close to 94% of red-zone trips. 

This should be an excellent battle between a couple of teams that are strong on both sides. Despite having a preseason future on the Aggies, I prefer to take the points with the Hurricanes in this matchup given their advantages when it comes to turnovers and red-zone efficiency, in addition to their ability to limit mobile quarterbacks. For what it’s worth, my projections have Texas A&M around a 2-point favorite.

Miami vs Texas A&M prediction: Miami Hurricanes +3.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to +3.

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I expect this game to be a brawl that’s spearheaded by the defenses more than the offenses of each team. Miami and Texas A&M limit opponents to fewer than 22 points per game while sitting top-20 in total defense and opposing success rate over the course of the whole season. Moreover, the Hurricanes and the Aggies are top-12 in opposing third down conversion rate and above average in standard downs PPA allowed, so it’s difficult to see too many methodical scoring drives in this one. Offensively, these teams operate at a snail’s pace relative to the rest of the FBS landscape, as Texas A&M is 110th in seconds per play while Miami sits 129th. Combined with the effectiveness of both defenses, this doesn’t bode well for points. 

With an over record of 8-4, Texas A&M’s games often included ample scoring, but the under has cashed in 4 of the last 5 Texas A&M games with a total of at least 51 points. Meanwhile, Miami’s games yielded fewer points, as the under was 7-5 in games involving the Hurricanes. Furthermore, unders are 4-1 in Miami’s games with a total of 51 or higher. Look for this one to stay low.

Miami vs Texas A&M prediction: Under 51.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to 51. 

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The Tulane Green Wave and Ole Miss Rebels meet for the second time this season, only this time it’s a do-or-die matchup. Back in late September, the Rebels dominated Tulane 45-10 in a game that got away from the Green Wave. The defense couldn’t get off the field, the passing game struggled to find any momentum and most of all the Rebels simply outclassed the Group of 5 opponent. It’s hard to see a much different result this time around despite the obvious coaching shenanigans on both sides. Jon Sumrall is off to Florida and Lane Kiffin is off to LSU, though Sumrall will still be on the sidelines for this game while Pete Golding takes the reins for the hosts.

The Ole Miss offense is a machine; the Rebels rank top 10 in both EPA/rush and EPA/dropback with a top-16 mark in net points per drive. Furthermore, Ole Miss has the No. 1 quality drive rate in FBS matched up against a Tulane unit ranking 94th in defensive success rate despite facing relatively inferior competition throughout the 2025 campaign. Home field advantage plays a big part in the College Football Playoffs, and I’ll back Ole Miss to dominate this matchup once again and cover the hefty spread.

Tulane vs Ole Miss prediction: Ole Miss Rebels -17 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

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Tulane and Ole Miss have met once before in the 2025 season, with the Rebels dominating in Oxford 45-10 in late September. The Green Wave managed only 104 passing yards in that game on a putrid 34.5% completion percentage. While the Rebels defense has excelled against the pass all season, I expect the Tulane offense to come out stronger this time around. Even after the poor performance in September, the Green Wave now rank 11th in passing success rate and I expect them to pull out all the bells and whistles in a do-or-die matchup.

On the other side of things, it’s no secret the Ole Miss offense is one of the top units in the country. The Rebels rank top 10 in both EPA/rush and EPA/dropback with a top-16 mark in net points per drive. Furthermore, Ole Miss has the No. 1 quality drive rate in FBS matched up against a Tulane unit ranking 94th in defensive success rate. Points will be scored by the Rebels, and with a spread set at 17-points one could expect the Green Wave to be forced into passing situations while playing from behind. With all things considered, I’ll take the over in this matchup.

Tulane vs Ole Miss prediction: Over 56.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

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The final game of the opening round of the College Football Playoff will commence on Saturday evening from Autzen Stadium, as the Oregon Ducks are set to host the James Madison Dukes in a game that appears to be pretty lopsided on paper. This is the largest spread of any College Football Playoff game in this new 12-team format thus far, and all signs would traditionally point to the Ducks winning big and advancing to the quarterfinals in a few weeks. In all honesty, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Dan Lanning’s team controlled this game from the opening kick and won by 17-20 points. However, even when pricing in an extra point or two for the atmosphere at Autzen Stadium at night in what should be one of the best Oregon crowds in recent memory, I just cant get to this number now that it’s currently sitting above 3 touchdowns.

This is a very difficult game to handicap given the impending coaching turnover on both sides, but I have massive respect for this James Madison coaching staff, and they should have their team ready to play in a game where the Dukes have nothing to lose and are playing with a bit of house money. In its only game against a Power 4 opponent on the road this season, James Madison was tied with Louisville in the 4th quarter and that was long before the Dukes were a finished product on offense. In fact, since Alonza Barnett III became the full-time quarterback, this has been a well-oiled machine (18th in success rate, 28th in EPA per play), albeit an offense that hasn’t faced a defense like what they’ll see against Oregon. Where JMU is pretty underrated nationally is on defense, as the Dukes are tops in the nation in success rate allowed, to go along with top 10 marks in EPA per play and points per drive allowed. They’ll certainly have their work cut out for them against an excellent Oregon offense, but the Ducks are still dealing with a number of injuries heading into this game and it’s not a guarantee that Will Stein’s offense will be at full strength, to say nothing of the focus concerns I have with the Ducks given both of their coordinators have already accepted other Power 4 head coaching jobs. Given the massive spread at play here, the backdoor could be wide open in the fourth quarter, and it’s not a guarantee that Oregon is just going to show up and win by 4 touchdowns on Saturday.  

James Madison vs Oregon prediction: James Madison +21.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number. 

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Regardless of which team covers the spread on Saturday, the under is my preferred look on the total in this contest. Both teams have the capability to score, but the weather conditions might not be conducive to points in this one — as scattered showers and winds of 8-12 miles per hour are in the forecast at the time of writing. Oregon will likely look to establish a lead early on before focusing on bleeding out the clock in the second half. The Ducks have been a run-first team in recent weeks given all of their injuries at wide receiver, and I can’t expect that to change here with Texas Tech looming on deck. On the other side, while the James Madison defense should generate a few stops in this one, the offense likely won’t be able to throw the ball downfield against an excellent Oregon secondary (9th in passing success rate allowed). With that in mind, I’ll hone in on the under in a game that has the potential to be in the mid 40s.

Under 47.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 47.

This play is a straight fade of Utah State, a team whose profile screams regression. The Aggies are an eye-popping 10–2 against the spread this season, and that kind of sustained profitability almost always invites correction — especially in bowl season, where lines tighten. The question bettors should be asking is simple: why is Washington State an underdog here at all? This is a Cougars team that went into Oxford and pushed Ole Miss to the brink, had a real shot to upset Virginia in Charlottesville, and had James Madison on the ropes in Harrisonburg. Those are CFP-level programs or teams that played for Power Five conference titles with a chance to get into the playoff. Utah State does not fill that bill.

Utah State’s favoritism here is driven almost entirely by market memory. They’ve been a cash cow all season, so the assumption is they’ll keep printing money. That’s dangerous thinking in a bowl game, where past ATS success is priced in and often overvalued. If Washington State shows up with the same edge and intensity they displayed against elite competition, this matchup is theirs to lose. Utah State isn’t equipped to withstand that version of the Cougars – plain and simple. Wrong side favored.

Washington State Cougars vs Utah State Aggies Prediction: Washington State (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Tuesday’s bowl slate takes us to Boca Raton, Florida for the Bush’s Boca Raton Bowl, featuring the Toledo Rockets and the Louisville Cardinals. Toledo finished 4^th in the MAC, but the Rockets closed the regular season on a 4-game winning streak to get themselves to Florida for bowl season. Louisville briefly flirted with the top of the ACC standings before losing its final 3 conference games. They managed to blank in-state rival Kentucky, 41-0, to close on a strong note. Louisville is the more talented team here, so as long as this line stays under a touchdown, I think that is the right play. Give me Louisville -6.5.

In terms of opt-outs and roster changes to be aware of, Louisville is likely to be missing a couple of defenders, and we aren’t sure who will dress for them at running back because of injuries. Quarterback Miller Moss flirted with opting out, but he appears ready to go after all. Louisville is decently stable as far as bowl rosters go. Toledo lost their coach, who took the job at UConn. That hasn’t brought as many transfers and opt-outs as you would expect, but the coaching change alone is significant. The bottom line here is that whenever Toledo has stepped outside the MAC this season (Wash St, Kentucky), they have struggled, and they have especially been unable to run the ball against bigger defenders. Louisville is better (and stronger) than both those opponents. I think the Rockets will struggle to generate offense here. I’ll take the Cardinals, as long as it is under a touchdown.

Toledo vs Louisville prediction: Louisville Cardinals -6.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

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At first glance, this total looks inviting for an over. UNLV plays fast, scores in bunches, and invites track meets. Ohio, meanwhile, has enough offensive competence to exploit the Rebels’ porous defense. On the surface, it makes sense why the market expects fireworks. But this matchup sets up far differently once you peel back the layers. Ohio’s path to success is not through scoring — it’s through pace and ball control. The Bobcats defend at a higher level, allowing just 22 points per game, and they are perfectly comfortable shortening the contest. To keep the Rebs in check, the Cats will milk the play clock, lean on long possessions, and prioritize field position. That approach directly limits UNLV’s biggest strength: explosive volume.

UNLV’s offense thrives when it gets repeated cracks. When possessions are reduced, their margin shrinks — and we’ve already seen their defense struggle to get off the field. If Ohio is competitive, it won’t be because they traded scores. It will be because they slowed the game, chewed clock, and forced UNLV to operate with fewer drives. There’s also clear correlation here. Ohio covering — or threatening to win outright — almost demands a lower-scoring environment. A shootout benefits the Rebels, not the Bobcats. Thus, if Ohio covers as we prognosticated, or if they even win here, the over becomes a long climb.

UNLV Rebels vs Ohio Bobcats prediction: Under 65 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Ohio has quietly become an afterthought. Once the Bobcats slipped out of the MAC title picture, the market stopped paying attention. UNLV, meanwhile, continues to receive respect by default after a 10-win season and a Mountain West title game appearance. But reputation and results are not the same thing — and this matchup exposes that gap. UNLV has been flawed all season. The Rebels are explosive offensively, averaging 35 points per game, but they remain one of the weakest defensive units among bowl-caliber teams, surrendering nearly 29 points per contest. Boise State — an offense that has struggled with consistency all year — put up 38 on UNLV just two weeks ago. That wasn’t an outlier. It was the norm. This is a team that has been clipped for 35 or more in five of their last ten games.

Ohio is built differently. The Bobcats play defense, allowing just 22 points per game, and their offense is capable of scoring efficiently without needing chaos or broken coverages. This isn’t an overmatched service academy or an FCS opponent that folded late like UNLV has faced previously. Ohio is structured, disciplined, and capable of playing four quarters. The market has pushed this number upward because of UNLV’s stature, not its reliability. That creates value on the Cats. UNLV is not a team you want to lay points with in a game like this — especially against a defense that won’t hand them easy possessions. Ohio can win this outright. Taking the points is the smart play.

UNLV Rebels vs Ohio Bobcats prediction: Ohio (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.