College Football Picks

When people hear the name Boise State, especially in mid-major football, there’s an automatic assumption that the Broncos will thrive in championship settings. They’ve earned that reputation over decades, and because of it, the market routinely prices Boise with an inflated premium. That’s exactly what we’re seeing here. UNLV enters the Mountain West Championship as the side everyone insists “shouldn’t be here” because of how chaotic the four-way tiebreaker scenario was. Add in the Rebels’ close calls this season—they barely survived Air Force, Miami (OH), Utah State, and even Idaho State—and the public instinctively leans toward Boise.

But the number tells a different story. Boise State beat UNLV by 25 earlier this season as a 13-point favorite. Now, on a neutral field with a championship on the line, the line is shorter and the Rebels are only a small underdog. That signals respect for UNLV and hints that oddsmakers anticipate a different type of fight this time around. UNLV’s offense gives them a live-dog profile, and Boise State hasn’t consistently validated the premium attached to their name this year. Forget the points, we’ll take UNLV straight up.

UNLV vs Boise State prediction: UNLV +145 (Money Line) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

If UNLV is going to win, they must do it with offense. That has been their identity all season long—fast tempo, chunk plays, and a scoring approach that forces opponents out of their comfort zones. Their defense isn’t built to anchor low-scoring games, so if they fall into a grinder, they’re in trouble. The first meeting between these teams showcased exactly that dynamic: Boise State and UNLV combined for 87 points in a high-octane shootout.

Boise State will score—they’ve been consistent enough offensively to assume they’ll get into the mid-20s or beyond. That alone puts this total nearly halfway home. The Rebels don’t win by slowing teams down; they win by trading scores and turning games into races to the mid-30s. One or two explosive drives from either side pushes this total over the edge. Given the matchup, the styles, and the previous match-up between these two, asking for 58 points is reasonable. This has shootout written all over it.

UNLV vs Boise State prediction: Over 57.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Western Michigan has been the hottest team in the MAC, winning eight of nine and cashing spreads at a 6-2-1 clip. That streak has created a massive wave of market confidence, and bettors continue piling onto the Broncos. But the line tells a different story: despite all that momentum, WMU is laying less than a field goal in the MAC title game. That’s the first indicator the market doesn’t fully trust them here.

Miami of Ohio comes in off dominant wins over Ball State and Buffalo, but what happened before those wins is pivotal. The Hawks suffered a blowout loss against Toledo and a loss at Ohio where the market was backing them in a revenge spot. From a distance, Miami Ohio looks like a team that can’t wrassle with any decent opposition that the MAC has to offer. That makes WMU laying less than a field goal appealing. And then there is what really matters – last year’s embarrassment in this exact championship spot. The RedHawks were routed, and the market remembers that but this is their chance to correct that. Western Michigan is priced at their ceiling while Miami is undervalued. This is the chance to move in hard on the RedHawks and we are backing them to win the MAC.

Miami Ohio vs Western Michigan prediction: Miami Ohio +120 (Money Line) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.