College Football Picks

It’s been a trying season for the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders. They head to Newark, DE for the first-ever matchup with the Delaware Blue Hens in a Conference USA game at Delaware Stadium looking to keep their bleak hopes of a bowl game alive. It’s technically possible, even at 1-5, but MTSU needs to get going now. While the Blue Raiders have the dismal record, three of the past four games are one-score games, with Middle Tennessee going 1-2 SU in those games. It had a 14-13 win at Nevada back on Sept. 13 for the only victory. It is coming off a narrow, gut-wrenching 22-20 loss to Missouri State, which could have turned things around significantly. The Under has cashed in the past two games, and the defense isn’t that bad allowing 24 or fewer points in three of the past four.

For Delaware, it is .500 at 3-3, and just 1-2 inside the conference. It is transitioning to FBS, but if it qualifies with six wins, and there are not enough bowl-eligible teams, it is possible they could still go bowling. The Blue Hens have lost consecutive games to Western Kentucky and Jacksonville State, two of the better teams in C-USA. The Under is 2-1 in the past three games, and 4-2 in six games overall. This won’t be a defensive slog in Delaware, but 55 is an awfully high number, especially given Middle’s lack of offense, and above-average D.

Under 55 (-110) at time of publishing. Playable to 53.

The Missouri State Bears head out west to face the New Mexico State Aggies in Las Cruces on Wednesday night. After getting absolutely torched at USC in the opener, 73-13, the Bears have stayed the course and pulled things together. They scored nice road wins at Marshall and Middle Tennessee, and are back to .500. However, it won just 22-20 at MTSU last time out, failing to cover as a 2.5-point favorite. The Under has cashed in five straight games since that annihilation at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum to open the season.

For New Mexico State, like MO State, it is also 3-3. This game is crucial for both teams, in terms of bowl eligibility. Missouri State would get a bid only if enough bowl-eligible teams cannot fill the spots, as it is transitioning to FBS. But, it has a good shot at satisfying bowl-eligibility criteria. The Aggies have been stout at home, winning all three games, including a 37-10 rout of Sam Houston on Oct. 2 in the most recent home contest. It is also 2-0 ATS at home against FBS opponents, while covering the past two. The Over is 3-1 in the past four games, so it’s a rather conflicting trend for totals. We’ll lean into the moneyline for the home side, as the Aggies nearly pulled off the upset at Liberty, and they’re playing really good ball lately.

New Mexico State Moneyline (+100) at time of publishing. Playable to -110.

The North Texas Mean Green bounced back from their first loss of the season, improving to 6-1 with a 55-17 win over UTSA. The Roadrunners never stood a chance, as the Mean Green jumped out to a 17-7 first quarter lead and never looked back. They outgained the Roadrunners 584-329, accumulating 270 of those yards on the ground at 6.1 yards per carry. 

UNT has surpassed 35 points in all but one game, which was a 33-30 overtime win over Western Michigan in Week 2. Meanwhile, Charlotte has yet to surpass 35 points against any FBS opponent. In fact, the 49ers haven’t even surpassed 26 points against FBS competition. Their most recent outing was a 49-14 home loss to Temple in which they trailed 28-7 at halftime, turned the ball over 3 times and passed for only 158 yards. 

There isn’t much history between these teams, as they’ve only met twice. The 49ers took both of those meetings back in 2019 and 2020, but these programs are in very different positions now. With a top-30 ranking in both PPA per play and success rate since Week 4, North Texas has the best offense Charlotte will have seen since its game against South Florida – one the Niners lost 54-26. It could have even been worse if USF didn’t turn the ball over 4 times. 

Charlotte ranks outside the top 100 in most metrics on both sides of the ball, and with UNT sitting at 2-1 in the conference race behind 3 undefeated teams, the Mean Green have absolutely no wiggle room. Look for them to take care of business and win by margin over a rebuilding Charlotte program. 

North Texas vs Charlotte prediction: North Texas Mean Green -26.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -27.

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Friday night’s ACC contest sees the California Golden Bears facing the Virginia Tech Hokies. Last Friday brought us some fireworks as Louisville upset Miami; this week, we move considerably further down the card for this matchup. Cal has already exceeded expectations this year as they come into the game with a 5-2 mark, while the Hokies made a midseason coaching change on the way to a 2-5 record. They have dropped consecutive games to Georgia Tech and Wake Forest, but also had a bye week to reset. Still, I don’t like much of anything going on in Blacksburg right now, so I am taking the Golden Bears +4.5.

Cal is certainly not great, but their defense has been competent and has kept them in games. They generate just enough offense through the air, and Virginia Tech has some weaknesses in the secondary, which should favor Cal. We usually want to fade these cross-country ACC trips, but this is a night game and not a noon start, so that shouldn’t be too much of a factor. The Hokies are in a freefall, and they have only covered once in 7 games. Even if Tech wins this game, I don’t see them running away with it against much of anyone. Give me the points with Cal in this spot.

Cal vs Virginia Tech Prediction: Cal +4.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Appalachian State Mountains head to the Tidewater region to take on the Old Dominion Monarchs in a Sun Belt Conference Game at S.B. Ballard Stadium in Norfolk, Virginia. App State is coming off a 45-37 loss at home against Coastal Carolina last time out as a 10.5-point favorite. The Mountaineers have been solid offensive, averaging 39.0 PPG in the past two games, but the defense has allowed 38 or more points in three of the past five outings. The Over is 4-1 in the past five games. The Mountaineers won last season’s meeting in Boone by a 28-20 score, cashing the Under. The total has gone low in each of the five meetings since Sept. 26, 2015.

Old Dominion was boat-raced by James Madison last time out, falling 63-27, and it has allowed 111 points in the past two games, while scoring at least 21 points in each of the past six. The Over is 4-1-1 in the past six games, too. ODU has trouble stopping the run, allowing 194.3 yards per game. Despite the series trends suggesting an Under result, the best course of action if going Over on the total in this Sun Belt battle.

Over 63 (-110) at time of publishing. Playable to 64.5.

Both the Kansas Jayhawks and Kansas State Wildcats are coming off a bye week entering what’s shaping up to be an exciting “Sunflower Showdown” matchup. The Wildcats have dominated this matchup in recent history, rattling off 16 consecutive wins in the all-time series, but the hosting Jayhawks enter this year’s matchup as favorites. While the narrative of the outcome is fun to examine, I’ll be looking towards the total in this matchup due to a few key statistics that should impact this game. For starters, the Kansas defense has been abysmal in terms of stalling drives or forcing turnovers; the Jayhawks rank 125th in FBS in red zone defense and 70th in points per quality drive. Kansas State on the other hand has been excellent at limiting turnovers and finishing drives, ranking top-15 in turnover margin and 16th in red zone offense with a 95.2% success rate.

On the other side of things, this Jayhawks’ passing game is legit and faces a K-State defense that ranks 88th in FBS in passing yards allowed. Kansas ranks 16th in EPA/dropback and is averaging over 220 rushing yards per game when playing at home this season. Not to forget, the Jayhawks will be incredibly motivated for this matchup in front of a rowdy crowd; I expect the offense to pull out all the stops. I’ll take the over in the Sunflower Showdown.

Kansas State vs Kansas prediction: Over 56.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

The Ole Miss Rebels are one blown fourth quarter lead on the road in Athens away from an undefeated record entering Saturday’s matchup on the road against No. 13 Oklahoma. The styles and schemes of both squads calls for an interesting game script as Ole Miss boast one of the most electric, explosive offenses in the country while the Sooners have arguably been the best defensive unit in the country allowing only 9.4 points per game. While Brent Venables’ squad is built on a defensive identity, they have yet to face an offense at the caliber of Ole Miss. The Rebels hold the top spot in FBS in quality drive rate, ranking top-12 in both EPA/rush and EPA/dropback while falling in the top-10 for net points per drive.

Georgia boasts an elite defense as well, but the Rebels posted 35 points in 3 quarters in that matchup. The Oklahoma offense is hard to rely on with QB John Mateer being rushed back from a broken bone in his throwing hand, ranking 72nd in net points per drive with only 3 TDs across the last two weeks. The Sooners run game hasn’t been all that great, and the Ole Miss defense specializes in stopping the pass, ranking 15th in EPA/dropback. If Ole Miss is able to start strong and get a lead out of the gates, things will open up for the Rebels’ offense and I wouldn’t be surprised if they pulled off the upset. With that being said, however, I’ll take the spread and back Ole Miss to keep this one close.

Ole Miss vs Oklahoma prediction: Ole Miss +5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

The styles and schemes of both Ole Miss and Oklahoma calls for an interesting game script as the Rebels boast one of the most electric, explosive offenses in the country while the Sooners have arguably been the best defensive unit in the country allowing only 9.4 points per game. With that being said, the Sooners have yet to face an offense like Ole Miss boasts. The Rebels rank top-12 in both EPA/rush and EPA/dropback while holding the top spot in FBS in terms of quality drive rate. The Sooners rank 1st in FBS in yards per game allowed and tackles for loss, but I expect Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss’ dual-threat and big-play ability to open things up for the Rebels offense. 

On the contrary, the Ole Miss defense hasn’t exactly been world beaters this season, ranking 91st in defensive efficiency. Throughout the weird spell of QB John Mateer’s rushed injury recovery from a broken bone on his throwing hand, the run game stepped up last week against South Carolina with 170 combined yards on the ground. In a matchup that holds significant playoff implications, I expect both squads to pull out all the stops in what could likely turn into a back-and-forth shootout. At the time of writing, the over/under has moved from 51.5 to 54.5 despite only roughly 60% of public bets siding with the over. With that being said, I’ll follow the line movement and take the over in this spot.

The Nebraska Cornhuskers are coming off a poorly played loss against Minnesota last weekend. Nebraska lost 24-6 on the road, and the Cornhuskers allowed their starting quarterback Dylan Raiola to get sacked nine times. Nebraska has the number one ranked defense in the FBS against the pass, and they held up in this game, but Nebraska could not stop Minnesota’s rushing attack, allowing 186 yards on the ground. Nebraska will try to bounce back this weekend when they face off against the Northwestern Wildcats. Northwestern has gotten off to a surprising 5-2 start this season. They have won their last four games, including wins against UCLA, Penn State, and Purdue. The Wildcats played Purdue last weekend and they shutout the Boilermakers 19-0. Northwestern’s defense currently ranks 22nd in the FBS in total defense. They have allowed on average 305 yards per game this season.

An early telltale sign of determined success for Nebraska is if they can keep their quarterback upright. In Nebraska’s two losses this season, they allowed seven sacks against Michigan, and nine sacks against Minnesota. Head coach Matt Rhule addressed the protection issue after the loss against Minnesota. He inferred that the problem is not only on the offensive linemen, but their running backs are also not picking up opposing blitzes well enough. He finished by stating “We have all the tools to handle that and we just didn’t do it.” Saturday’s game against Northwestern should be a good bounce back spot for Nebraska’s protection unit. Although Northwestern has excelled on defense this season, they have not frequently gotten to opposing quarterbacks.  In seven games this season, Northwestern has only sacked their opponents 11 times. Their current sack leader is defensive lineman Anto Saka with three sacks. With a week to prepare and focus on the problem, I believe coach Rhule will bring a solid gameplan to keep Raiola upright, allowing Nebraska’s talent to guide them to victory on their home field.

Nebraska -7 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Boilermakers aren’t a team that exactly have raised eyebrows in recent memory. Last year, Purdue was the proverbial hackey sack that got kicked around the Big Ten and the favorite chew toy of many. On cue, the Boilers have picked up where they have left off, dropping their last five overall, getting whacked in every one of these contests. Rutgers meanwhile comes in on a four-game skid of their own but they have more wins on the year, sitting at 3-4 compared to Purdue’s 2-5. However, are the Scarlet Knights a team that should be spotting points on the road in this situation? Probably not. The Knights barely got by Ohio in their season opener as a 15.5-point favorite. Yes, they did what they had to do against Miami Ohio and Norfolk State but that was in Piscataway. It’s a different task to win in West Lafayette and be expected to do so.

The line also speaks to us. The Boilers are not even being given a field goal and this is a team that has lost every game this year by a touchdown or more. If Rutgers were worthy of a road favorite designation, they’d be laying more here but they are not. Purdue gets off the snide. Boilers outright.

Rutgers vs. Purdue prediction: Purdue ML (+115) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

Despite 2 losses on the season, SMU’s hopes to return to the ACC title game are very much alive, as the Mustangs are undefeated in conference play thanks to a 35-24 win at Clemson last week. The Tigers were without starting quarterback Cade Klubnik, and the Mustangs were able to take advantage of that – holding the Tigers to around 350 yards of offense and just 1.2 yards per carry. Following the big win, the Mustangs will travel to Winston-Salem for a meeting with a pesky Wake Forest squad. It’s one of those classic sandwich spots for SMU, as they beat Clemson last week and have a home game against Miami next week. Could it be a sleepy spot for SMU at Wake Forest? I tend to think so.

The Demon Deacons enter this contest following a bye, so they will benefit from extra time to rest and prepare for the Mustangs. Wake Forest may be 1-2 in ACC play, but the ‘Deacs have been solid against their conference opponents – as their 2 losses against NC State and Georgia Tech were very winnable until the offense fell apart in the second halves of those contests. A bye week prior to this game should help the late-game woes for Wake Forest, especially against an opponent that may overlook this game for next week’s massive clash against the Hurricanes. 

SMU loves to throw the ball. In fact, the Mustangs are top-15 in passing rate outside of garbage time over the last 5 weeks, which may play into the strengths of Wake’s defense. The Demon Deacons are 3rd nationally in PPA per pass and 13th in passing downs PPA since Week 4, along with top-30 marks in overall PPA per play allowed, points allowed per quality drive, and standard downs PPA. On the season as a whole, Wake’s defense ranks 12th in yards per play allowed. Look for the Demon Deacons to leverage the advantageous situational spot and utilize their defensive strengths enough to sneak inside this number with a real chance to steal a victory. 

SMU vs Wake Forest prediction: Wake Forest Demon Deacons +3.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to +3. 

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Arguably the Group of 5 game of the year, the South Florida Bulls will head to Memphis to take on the Tigers at noon ET on ESPN2, though Memphis somewhat diminished the lure of this matchup when it lost last week at UAB as more than a 3-touchdown favorite. The Tigers were outgained by the Blazers 470-362, and they surrendered 5.3 yards per carry and 9.3 yards per pass. To make matters worse, Memphis starting quarterback Brendon Lewis suffered a lower body injury during the game and was seen with crutches on the sideline. He is currently day-to-day, but the market seems to think he will either be out or extremely limited – as USF is as high as a -5.5-point favorite at some sportsbooks after opening around -3.5. 

USF’s offense has been blazing-hot after the Bulls lost at Miami earlier in the season. In fact, the Bulls have scored at least 48 points in 4 straight games. Without the guarantee of a healthy Lewis, it’s hard to recommend anything other than USF even with the line move – especially after Memphis’ defensive performance last week. Since Week 4, the Tigers are 101st in PPA per play allowed and 87th in points allowed per quality drive, which doesn’t exactly inspire much confidence against a USF offense that is top 15 across the board since the middle of September and top 10 in turnover margin this season. Look for the Bulls to continue their run in an attempt to earn the Group of 5 CFP bid. 

South Florida vs Memphis prediction: South Florida Bulls -4.5 (-112) available at the time of publishing. Playable to -5.5.

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If Memphis starting quarterback Brendon Lewis is unable to play in this game, it may be hard for the Tigers to find the end zone enough to push this game over the total. Memphis already plays at a below-average tempo, ranking 101st in seconds per play against FBS opponents. Without Lewis, that tempo could be even slower, and the Tigers would likely lose some explosiveness in the run game – as he leads the team in carries and rushing touchdowns this season. 

USF boasts a defense that is top-15 in points allowed per quality drive, standard downs PPA and passing downs PPA since Week 4. Furthermore, the Bulls are 1st nationally in PPA per rush allowed over the last 5 weeks, which will be huge against Memphis’ running back trio of Sutton Smith, Greg Desrosiers Jr., and Frank Peasant. Taking an under in this game is certainly playing with fire, but I certainly lean that way without more clarity on Lewis’ injury situation.

South Florida vs Memphis prediction: Under 63.5 (-105) available at the time of publishing. Playable to 63.

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The seventh-ranked Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets will look to continue their perfect season this Saturday when they welcome in the Syracuse Orange. Georgia Tech now sits as the only remaining unbeaten team in the ACC. The Yellow Jackets defeated Duke last week on the road 27-18, handing them their first conference loss of the season. Georgia Tech trailed by three points late in the 3rd-quarter before they scored 20 unanswered points, leading them to victory as slight underdogs. Quarterback Haynes King continues to lead the Yellow Jackets in both passing yards and rushing yards. He combined for a total of 325 yards against Duke. Syracuse started their season 3-1, but have since lost three straight games. The losing streak started when Syracuse saw their starting quarterback Steve Angeli go down with a season-ending injury. Sophomore quarterback Rickie Collins has filled the role, throwing for 733 yards, 5 touchdowns and 8 interceptions in his 5 total appearances this season. Collins struggled in the team’s most recent loss to Pittsburgh. He threw 3 interceptions and completed less than 50% of his passes. 

The season is beginning to spiral out of control for Syracuse. What was supposed to have been an offense that can stretch defenses with big passing plays, Syracuse now sits in the middle of their season with a young, inexperienced quarterback room that will need to improve if Syracuse wants to salvage their season with three ranked teams coming up on their schedule in the next four weeks. This could be another tough week for the Orange against one of the top rushing quarterbacks in the ACC. Syracuse’s defense ranks near the bottom half of college football, allowing on average 270 yards passing and 151 yards rushing per game. King should be in for a big game offensively. He has thrown for 1176 yards and ran for another 560 yards this season. A positive for Syracuse has been their pass rush. They were able to keep the game close against Pittsburgh in the first half by consistently pressuring the quarterback. Kevin Jobity Jr. led the defense with three sacks. King will be much harder to contain. Georgia Tech has kept their quarterback upright in the pocket consistently this season. King has not been sacked in his last three games. If Georgia Tech can keep playing the way they have been, they should be able to control time of possession with the run, win the turnover battle against a young quarterback, and score on a big play when the opportunity presents itself. All of this sounds like a great path towards a win and a cover.

Georgia Tech -17.5 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Indiana Hoosiers seem to be on a collision course to take on Ohio State to become Big Ten champions for the first time since 1967. In order to get there, the Hoosiers need to continue to stay focused and beat the conference teams in front of them. This week’s test will be at home against the UCLA Bruins. UCLA started their season 0-4, but they have gotten hot, winning their last three games. One of those wins included a 42-37 win against Penn State. UCLA’s last win came Saturday against Maryland. UCLA trailed 10-7 with five minutes remaining, but quarterback Nico Iamaleava led the Bruins to three straight scoring drives late to award UCLA with a 20-17 win. Iamaleava finished the game with 221 yards passing. It was the first time he exceeded 200 yards passing since September 12 against New Mexico. Indiana is coming off a 38-13 win against Michigan State last week. The win against Michigan State was coming off arguably the biggest win in program history for the Hoosiers when they beat Oregon 30-20. A lot of good teams may have regressed against a lesser opponent following a big win, but the Hoosiers showed they can stay focused and inspired to play each and every week. Quarterback Fernando Mendoza was nearly perfect last week, throwing 332 yards and 4 touchdowns. Mendoza completed 86% of his passes, finishing with only 4 incompletions. 

Despite the Hoosiers winning last week and overwhelming Michigan State, Indiana still was unable to cover the spread of 26.5. Indiana currently sits at a record of 4-3 against the spread this season and 2-2 against the Big Ten. They showed last week how they can win a football game by winning in every category, but still fall short in the eye of the sports bettor. It all goes to show that Indiana may be receiving too much credit and points, especially going into a matchup against a hot UCLA team. UCLA has turned their season around with three straight wins, including an identical 38-13 win over Michigan State. The difference that changed for UCLA doesn’t only include their level of play, but also the culture head coach Tim Skipper has instilled in this program. After firing DeShaun Foster, interim head coach Fisher has the Bruins players stating that they are once again having ‘fun’ when hitting the field. UCLA has established an ideology of being the underdog and that they can compete with any program. They are going to need to bring that same intensity into Memorial Stadium this weekend to keep this game competitive.

UCLA +25.5 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

We have a noon kickoff for #16 Virginia at North Carolina. North Carolina has caught a lot of attention this year as they have unexpectedly struggled under the leadership of Bill Belichick. The Heels have now dropped to 2-4 overall. On the other side, UVA is in the hunt for a conference championship game appearance, as they are undefeated in conference play, and their remaining schedule is very, very favorable. They need no slip-ups in spots like this. That said, this is the kind of spot that can be a trap game for a good team, and I think we are catching too many points here. I will go with North Carolina +10.5.

The Virginia offense has slowed over the past couple of weeks. They struggled mightily against both Washington State (301 total yards) and Louisville (237 total yards). They won both games, which is always the important part, but that might well be the case this week too. That is, I expect Virginia to be good enough to win the game (playing clean football, no bad turnovers), but maybe not to the point of running away with things. The Tar Heels are starting to look a bit more competent and together, and they still have the talent to compete. They could scare the Hoos in this one. Give me the points with the home team.

Virginia vs North Carolina Prediction: North Carolina +10.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Following their 4th consecutive loss, the Auburn Tigers hit the road to play the Arkansas Razorbacks, who are losers of 5 straight. Last time out, the Tigers held a 17-10 lead in the 4th quarter at home against Missouri, but they surrendered a game-tying touchdown with about 5 minutes left and eventually went on to lose in overtime. Despite the loss, Auburn outgained Missouri and won the turnover battle, though they were just 6/16 on third down. Meanwhile, Arkansas suffered its 2nd consecutive 3-point loss to a top 10 team, surrendering 40+ points for the 3rd time in 5 games. 

By the numbers, Arkansas has a very poor defense. But are the Hogs really that bad on that side of the ball, or does it have something to do with the quality of opponent they’ve played over the last 6 weeks? Probably a mixture of the two, but Arkansas has gone up against Ole Miss, Memphis, Notre Dame, Tennessee and Texas A&M one after the other. All 5 of those teams are in the top 25 in PPA per play since Week 4. 

Unlike those teams, Auburn is not good offensively. In fact, the Tigers have been pretty awful offensively this season, as they enter this game outside the top 110 in multiple advanced metrics on that side of the ball. Their biggest issues are penalties and QB Jackson Arnold’s inefficiency on a per pass basis, which would be problematic for them if they were to face an early deficit on the road against a very good Arkansas offense that has yet to show signs of quit under interim head coach Bobby Petrino despite a 2-5 overall record. 

On a per play basis, the Razorbacks have been extremely efficient with the ball in their hands thanks to QB Taylen Green, but turnovers have been their Achilles heel thus far. Those self-inflicted mistakes are a concern against a strong Auburn defense. However, I have zero faith in Auburn’s offense to actually capitalize on Arkansas’ turnovers. In fact, I have zero faith in this Auburn team overall at this current moment in time. Eventually, the mental and emotional drain of losing close game after close game weighs on players, not to mention the swirling rumors regarding the uncertainty of head coach Hugh Freeze’s future with the program and the unending criticism of Arnold under center. Take the Razorbacks in this one. 

Auburn vs Arkansas prediction: Arkansas Razorbacks +1.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -1. 

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If this were Week One, this game would have a completely different connotation. Not too long ago, the Gamecocks were ranked and Alabama wasn’t on the back-end of four straight ranked wins against conference opponents. These are two sides trending in opposite directions and now South Carolina is being offered at a number that cannot be passed up.

Not only do the points look good here, but USC looks tempting as an outright proposition on the Money Line and such maybe worth a consideration for those that are adventurous. But we’ll stick to the point spread. South Carolina in many ways is reminiscent of Florida State. The Gamecocks have a physical and dynamic quarterback in Lanorris Sellers who could give Alabama’s rush defense fits like Tommy Castellanos did. Let’s not also forget that South Carolina has one of the most animated home environments in all of the SEC which will make things difficult for the Tide. Alabama on the road this season got help from the Dawgs and Mizzou to escape with a field-goal win and their routs of Vandy and Tennessee were in Tuscaloosa. This is a completely different animal if South Carolina doesn’t do the Tide any favors.

We know, the Gamecocks got buried by the Oklahoma and look like they are dead in the water here, but that sets the table for the unthinkable. Alabama will not walk into Columbia and simply have it’s way. Upset potential is high here and it would not be surprising by the least. But this number is inflated due to recency bias and those backing the Gamecocks get to take advantage. Grab the points.

Alabama vs. South Carolina prediction: South Carolina +13.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable to +13.

The Missouri Tigers recovered from their loss against Alabama with a 23-17 overtime win at Auburn last week, despite being outgained by the navy-and-orange Tigers and averaging just 2.1 yards per carry. Following the win, Mizzou will head to Nashville to play the Vanderbilt Commodores on Saturday in front of the ESPN College GameDay crew. On the other sideline, the ‘Dores also bounced back from a loss to Alabama with a 31-24 win over LSU in which Vandy controlled most of the game despite the close score line. The Commodores outgained LSU 399-325 and averaged 5.3 yards per carry in the contest, which was turnover-free on both sides. Missouri has beaten Vanderbilt 5 times in a row and 8 of the last 10, though the Commodores made things interesting in Columbia last year in what was a 3-point win in overtime.

Missouri has not been as dominant against SEC competition as it was against non-conference foes early in the season. The Tigers needed an 11-point 4th quarter to beat South Carolina by 9, went 1/11 on third down at home against Alabama and were outgained by Auburn’s anemic offense. Now, they hit the road again to play one of the most dangerous offenses in the country, led by quarterback Diego Pavia. Pavia has been one of the best signal-callers in the sport this season, sitting 6th nationally in PFF passing grade among 156 qualified quarterbacks. Furthermore, his big-time throw rate is top-10 nationally, while his completion percentage is top-12 and his pressure-to-sack rate is top-15. Any way you slice it, Pavia has been great this season, paving the way for an elite Vanderbilt offense by the numbers. The ‘Dores are top-5 in yards per play and third-down conversions, while boasting top-7 marks in almost every key advanced offensive metric including PPA per play, success rate, points per quality drive and havoc allowed over the last 5 weeks.

My numbers have largely undervalued Vanderbilt against power-conference opponents this season, and it’s happening again this week. Last week, LSU was a “value play,” but we went against the numbers and won with the Commodores. This week, my numbers show Missouri as the “value” pick at +3. However, just like last week, I can’t get there with the Tigers despite my projections showing value on the visitors. Vanderbilt is just too good offensively, and it’s going to be hard for the Tigers to keep pace if they can’t efficiently pass the ball. For reference, Missouri is 76th in passing downs PPA and 94th in PPA per pass since Week 4. In fact, their efficiency as a whole has regressed since stepping up in level of competition, ranking 72nd in PPA per play outside of garbage over the last 5 weeks. On the other side of the ball, the Tigers are 70th in points allowed per quality drive and 58th in passing downs PPA over that same span of time. 

With a better quarterback, better offense and home-field advantage, look for Vanderbilt to overpower a Missouri team playing their 2nd road game in as many weeks. ‘Dores win outright and keep on rolling.

Missouri vs Vanderbilt prediction: Vanderbilt Commodores ML (-135) at the time of publishing. Playable to -150.

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Vanderbilt has one of, if not the best offense in the country right now, and its defense has been spotty at times throughout the season. However, I’m not running to the window to bet an over in this game, as Missouri and Vanderbilt play at below-average tempo and feature their talented running backs often. In fact, Vanderbilt has been one of the slowest offenses in the country this year, sitting 128th in seconds per play against FBS opponents. Meanwhile, Missouri is 63rd in that metric.

Vanderbilt’s best defensive attribute is how it performs against the run. The ‘Dores defense is 12th nationally in rushing yards per game, 27th in yards per attempt, and 5th in total rushing touchdowns. Going one step further, the ‘Dores are top-45 in PPA per rush and 9th nationally in explosiveness per rush outside of garbage time since Week 4. Their success against the run should be enough to at least limit Missouri running back Ahmad Hardy and force Missouri to pass more, which is not Beau Pribula’s strength as Missouri’s quarterback. For reference, Pribula has the 2nd-most interceptions in the SEC, including 4 over the last 2 weeks, and has the 2nd-fewest big-time throws in the conference. Look for this game to be heavily predicated on the run, which should keep the clock moving and suppress scoring just enough to stay under this number.

Missouri vs Vanderbilt prediction: Under 52.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to 52.

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The Pittsburgh Panthers have been rolling ever since making a switch at QB following back-to-back losses with Mason Heintschel taking over for Eli Holstein and leading the Panthers to three straight wins with an average win-margin of 20.3 PPG throughout that stretch including an upset win on the road over Florida State. The real star of the show for PITT, however,  has been the defense. Pittsburgh ranks 4th in FBS in rushing defense — allowing only 82.4 yards per game on the ground — and 12th in EPA/rush allowed.

The Wolfpack likes to run the ball, though they rank 82nd in rushing success rate and will likely have to rely on QB CJ Bailey. The sophomore QB is solid, but he’s somewhat turnover prone and matches up against a Panthers defense that ranks 28th in turnovers gained. Pittsburgh has some mojo rolling right now, and I’m riding the wave and backing the Panthers to cover at home in this spot.

NC State vs Pittsburgh prediction: Pittsburgh -6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

The San Diego State Aztecs hit the road for The Valley to battle the Fresno State Bulldogs on Saturday afternoon in a Mountain West Conference battle. The Aztecs offense has come alive in the past two games, racking up 44.5 points per game (PPG) in the past two games, while posting 34 or more points in three of the past four outings. The Aztecs are 4-0 against the spread (ATS) in the past four games, too, if you’re looking for a Same-Game Parlay (SGP) opportunity. A high-powered rushing offense with 180.2 rushing yards per game, coupled with a suffocating defense with 259.7 total yards, 161.2 passing yards, 98.5 rushing yards and 12.2 points per game allowed is a great recipe for victory.

The Fresno State Bulldogs had racked up five straight wins from Aug. 30-Oct. 4, but they received a dose of reality at Colorado State two weeks ago in a 49-21 loss as 5.5-point favorites. It was the first time Fresno State’s defense has really struggled badly. The Bulldogs are 0-3 ATS in the past three games, however, and that’s where we’ll focus. The Bulldogs have won four of the past six meetings in this series, but San Diego State is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings since Nov. 17, 2018. Let’s roll with the confident Aztecs to get the job done, and feel confidently in backing them.

San Diego State -3 (-110) at time of publishing. Playable to -4.5.

The Toledo Rockets bounced back from their 3rd loss of the season with a 45-10 victory over Kent State in which they faced a 10-0 deficit early in the game. The Rockets rattled-off 45 unanswered points and outgained the Golden Flashes 552-224 in the victory. At 4-3, Toledo will hit the road this week to play a non-conference game at Washington State against a Cougars team that just played east-coast, power-conference schools in back-to-back weeks. Two weeks ago, Wazzu took Ole Miss to the wire in Oxford. In fact, the Cougars held the lead twice despite catching over 30 points on the spread, but wound up losing by 3 points. Last week, Washington State had a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter in Charlottesville, a deficit from which the Cavaliers came back. Virginia ended up winning by 2 on a safety. 

The Cougars may have forgotten what playing at home feels like. They have been on the road in 4 of their last 5 contests, and their one home game in that span was a 35-point loss to rival Washington. This game against Toledo should be very winnable for Washington State, but how motivated will this bunch be to play Toledo after just playing against Ole Miss and Virginia on the road in very narrow losses? Despite their 4-3 record, the Rockets can be a tricky team to play, especially because of how good they are defensively. They are 5th nationally in yards per play this season, and over the last 5 weeks, they have top-35 marks in every single advanced defensive metric I evaluate. Because of that, my numbers make them a favorite over Wazzu despite being winless on the road thus far. I’m going to follow the projections and lean to Toledo in this one due to its highly-efficient defense and above-average rushing attack. 

Toledo vs Washington State prediction: Toledo Rockets ML (+105) at the time of publishing. Playable to +100.

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It’s not the biggest game on the slate by any means, but one of the more consequential contests in the SEC takes place in Starkville, Mississippi on Saturday between the Texas Longhorns and Mississippi State Bulldogs. A week ago, I was all over the Bulldogs to keep things within one score against the Florida Gators on the road, and Mississippi State was within the number for all 60 minutes and could’ve even won the game outright if not for a late interception in Florida territory in the final minutes. It just so happens that I’m going back to the well with the Bulldogs at home against a Texas team that is absolutely reeling at the moment. 

After looking like it had finally figured some things out on offense in recent weeks, Texas is coming off an extremely fortunate victory over Kentucky last week that is sure to send Steve Sarkisian and company back to the drawing board. Texas gained just 179 yards against the Wildcats and registered only 3.3 yards per play, while the Longhorns surrendered 395 yards and allowed nearly 40 minutes of time of possession. Mississippi State is certainly a better team than Kentucky and the Bulldogs will be at home, where they’ve excelled at this season, already beating Arizona State as an underdog of a touchdown and nearly upsetting Tennessee as a 7.5-point home ‘dog. Road starts have not been kind to Texas quarterback Arch Manning this season, as the Longhorns signal caller has just one touchdown pass over his first two outings away from home. This won’t be an easy matchup against a Bulldogs defense that has surprisingly been a top 40 unit against the pass to this point, and ranks 27th in points per drive allowed per CFB-Graphs. 

As for the other side of the ball, the Mississippi State offense should be able to keep the Bulldogs in this game, even against a Texas defense that is a top 10 unit in the sport. The Bulldogs offense is a veteran group that sits at tops in the nation in rushing success rate, while sitting at 22nd nationally in success rate. The Texas defense is one that has the ability to slow down any team, but it remains to see if the Longhorns will take the early lead, or will Jeff Lebby’s group be the one to bring the energy and punch Texas in the mouth early on. The market continues to overrate this Texas team, especially since the Longhorns have shown us next to nothing to deserve their power rating to this point. With that in mind, let’s take the ‘dog with the points.

Texas vs Mississippi State prediction: Mississippi State +7.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to +7

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It’s been a rough go for Wisconsin, as the Badgers have failed to score in back-to-back weeks against Iowa and Ohio State. In the 2 games prior, Wisconsin scored just 10 points in each of its contests with Maryland and Michigan, which were on the heels of scoring just 14 against Alabama. All together, the Badgers have scored merely 34 points over their last 5 games, which is under a touchdown per game on average. Unfortunately for them, things will not get any easier this weekend when they travel to Eugene to play a beast of an Oregon Ducks team that may have been awakened by its loss to Indiana. The Ducks travelled all the way out to New Jersey last week and hung more than 50 points on Rutgers, and it wouldn’t shock me if the Ducks did the same thing this week at home. 

Unlike last year, Oregon has smothered inferior competition in front of its home crowd. Look no further than the 69-3 win over Oklahoma State or the 41-7 win over Oregon State. Given Wisconsin’s recent struggles, a score line similar to those games seems likely this week in Eugene. For reference, the Badgers 121st in turnover margin and 128th in yards per play on the season as a whole, and their recent marks are even worse. Since Week 4, the Badgers are second-to-last and dead-last in PPA per play and points per quality drive, respectively. Neither the run nor the pass has worked for this offense, which sits outside the top 130 in both PPA per rush and PPA per pass.

Things aren’t much better on the other side of the ball. Wisconsin is 131st in standard downs PPA, which means their opponents often put themselves in great position to convert third downs and extend drives more often than not. The Badgers don’t offer much resistance on a per-play basis and they don’t generate very much havoc, so the Ducks should cruise here with an offense that boasts top 30 marks across the board. This isn’t a game I’m interested in betting, but if I had to, I would lay the points with the Ducks.

Wisconsin vs Oregon prediction: Oregon Ducks -33.5 (-105) at the time of publishing. Playable at that number or better. 

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After a huge 24-21 win over Miami that has left the ACC wide open for a number of teams to take, the newly-ranked Louisville Cardinals will welcome in the 1-6 Boston College Eagles. Louisville bounced back from their only loss of the season with a big win over 2nd-ranked Miami. Quarterback Miller Moss threw for 248 yards passing and 2 touchdowns, while running back Isaac Brown led the Cardinals with 113 yards rushing. Louisville’s defense was the main headline in the win, intercepting Miami’s quarterback Carson Beck four times in the victory. Louisville currently ranks 27th in the FBS with a +4 turnover margin. Boston College has struggled this season after a win to open the season. They have lost their last six games, all against FBS opponents. It has seemingly been getting worse for the Eagles with their last three losses all coming by double digits. Boston College made a change at quarterback last week. They decided to start senior quarterback Grayson James against Connecticut. James threw for 204 yards and 2 touchdowns in the loss.

It has been a rough last three weeks for Boston College’s defense. In their last three losses, the Eagles have surrendered on average 487 yards of offense to their opponents and 42 points per game. In years past, defense has been a strength for Boston College, but due to a combination of players graduating and injuries to their linebacking group, there is not much for a path towards improvement for Boston College. Louisville will have the opportunity to move the ball effectively this Saturday. Boston College currently ranks 117th against the pass this season. The Eagles also rank 134th in the country in stop rate. Offensively, Boston College showed signs of life under James. They won the time of possession against Connecticut and totaled 24 first downs. I don’t think there is a way they can keep up with Louisville, but if Boston College can score enough offensively, this game should be able to get over the total.

Over 55 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

One of the 5 remaining undefeated teams in college football, the Texas A&M Aggies will head to one of the sport’s most difficult places to play in LSU’s Death Valley this weekend to play the Tigers. It will be Texas A&M’s second consecutive road game after barely out-lasting the Razorbacks in Arkansas last week, as the Aggies were outgained in that contest and surrendered 8.4 yards per carry. LSU, on the other hand, returns home after its 2nd 1-score loss in 3 games. The Tigers were unable to stymie Vanderbilt’s offense in last week’s 31-24 defeat, which certainly is a concern against the high-powered Texas A&M offense.

You could argue LSU has played just 2 offenses with a pulse – Ole Miss and Vanderbilt – and the Tigers lost both of those games. The silver lining is that both of those games were on the road, but LSU hasn’t exactly played well against SEC opponents at home. Both the Florida and South Carolina games ended with a score of 20-10 in favor of LSU, though the Tigers could have lost one, if not both of those games if it weren’t for the offensive incompetencies of the Gators and the Gamecocks. 

If one thing is for certain, Texas A&M is extremely competent offensively. The Aggies have had one questionable performance from a scoring perspective, a 16-10 home win over Auburn. However, the score doesn’t quite depict Texas A&M’s domination due to a couple of missed field goals and a turnover near the red zone. The Aggies still outgained Auburn 414-177 in that contest, while averaging 4.4 yards per carry and 9.4 yards per pass. In every other game, the Aggies have scored at least 31 points. They are 14th in yards per play this season, and over the last 5 weeks, they are 21st in PPA per play and 1st in havoc allowed outside of garbage time. They are particularly good on standard downs, which gives them third-and-managable situations quite often – a down on which the Tigers defense has been good, but not great in recent weeks. 

Having failed to surpass 24 points against any FBS opponent, I struggle to trust LSU’s offense enough to cover as a home underdog, much less win outright. I realize how difficult of an atmosphere Death Valley is to play in, but Texas A&M’s offense never skipped a beat under the lights at Notre Dame earlier this year – which is a good notch to have under its belt ahead of this contest with LSU. Look for the Aggies to continue their undefeated quest this week.

Texas A&M vs LSU predictions: Texas A&M Aggies -2.5 (-115) at the time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

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The Aggies may not hang 40 points on the board this week, but they should still be trusted to score. LSU’s defense has been touted as one of the better stop-units in the country, and from a points and yardage perspective, it is. However, the Tigers have shown some weaknesses over the last 5 weeks on a play-to-play basis, ranking 80th in PPA per pass and 103rd in passing downs PPA. They have even been questionable against the run of late, surrendering 166 rushing yards to Ole Miss, 193 to South Carolina and 239 to Vanderbilt last week. With a talented group of running backs playing next to a mobile, athletic quarterback in Marcel Reed that can stretch the defense down field, the Aggies should be able to find chunk plays on the ground. After all, the Texas A&M offensive line is 13th in stuff rate allowed and 44th in line yards outside of garbage time since Week 4.

While LSU has only surpassed 24 points once this season (against an FCS opponent), the Tigers should score enough to help push this game over the low total. For as good as Texas A&M is offensively, its defense can be exposed at times. The Aggies are 130th in points allowed per quality drive outside of garbage time since Week 4, and have surrendered a fair share of explosive runs – which should help an LSU offense that has struggled to find success on standard downs recently.

If this total was in the mid-50s, I would certainly look toward an under. However, this number is just a little too low given how good Texas A&M is offensively and how inconsistent it can be defensively. Look toward the over at the current price.

Texas A&M vs LSU prediction: Over 47.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to 48.5.

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