Air Force Falcons vs UNLV Rebels Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 10/11/25

Let’s start with the number, which, in more ways than one, raises eyebrows. Fundamentally, in a game with a high over/under such as this one (66.5 at time of writing), the prudent move is to grab the points in what is a volatile offensive-oriented setting. Points are essential, and laying them is not a good practice.

Then, there is also the fact that the Force is 1-4 on the year, while the Rebels are undefeated, continuing their campaign as a dark horse for a CFP spot under Dan Mullen. To see the Rebels enlisted at a short price against an Air Force team whose only win is against Bucknell (FCS team) is beguiling, to say the least. Then you remember, UNLV was nearly clipped by an FCS side in Idaho State in Week 0, beat up on a winless Sam Houston State, beat UCLA before it found itself, narrowly escaped a loss at Miami Ohio, and then had their way with a listless Wyoming team in Laramie. Sure, the Rebels are 5-0, but for all intent and purposes, they could easily be 2-3 with some eye-sore losses in a different universe. What would they be priced at here if that were the case? They may actually be the dog.

The Fly Guys are 1-4, but there is nuance to their losses. They had a narrow defeat against undefeated Navy last week in a 34-31 shootout and a loss to Boise State in mid-September. The Falcons score consistently, as they have one of the best rushing offenses in America, and they are scoring over 36 points per game (8th overall in the FBS).  UNLV’s defense ranks 114th in total yards per game (413.4 ypg), and while the Falcons live and die by their offense, the Rebels’ offense hasn’t shown the consistency to hold serve and volley for long sequences this season. That may work against Idaho State or Sam Houston State, but that not against this outfit. This is a game where a sprinkle on the money line could be justified, but we’ll trust the Falcons to come in under the points in a tilt they can win outright.

Air Force vs. UNLV prediction: Air Force Falcons +6 .5 (-110) available at time of publishing, playable to +6.

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