Alabama Crimson Tide vs Florida State Seminoles Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 08/30/25

One of Saturday’s headliner Week 1 matchups features the Alabama Crimson Tide vs the Florida State Seminoles. The Seminoles, trying to flush last year’s 2-10 season, will be debuting a renovated stadium, and that is not all that is getting a facelift with this team. Mike Norvell brought in Gus Malzahn as the OC, and they poached dual-threat QB Tommy Castellanos from Boston College after he beat the Noles last season. For Alabama, it is odd to think that a team could go 9-4 in the SEC and still have the coach on the hot seat, but that’s what happens when you follow Nick Saban. Kalen DeBoer has reloaded for year 2, and maybe most importantly, he reunites with his ex-Husky OC Ryan Grubb after a brief run with the Seahawks. What should we expect Saturday? Opening on the road against a major conference foe is not easy, but Alabama should easily have the more talented roster, and I expect the Tide to cover. Give me Alabama -13.5.

Alabama is loaded with blue chip guys everywhere, but their most dangerous unit is their deep and scary receiver room led by Ryan Williams. Williams is already one of the best receivers in the country, and picturing him running the Rome Odunze role from DeBoer’s Washington days will keep opposing coaches up at night. But Williams is not alone, and Alabama should be a quick-strike offense that can score from anywhere, but also with the talent up front to run the ball whenever they want to. I don’t know that FSU has the horses on defense to hold up for 4 quarters. I do think the Seminoles can hang around early, but in the end, Bama should pull away and win by 2 scores.

Alabama vs Florida State Prediction: Alabama -13.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

When it comes to scoring in this game, I am looking at the offensive coordinators and their preferred style of play. Both Ryan Grubb and Gus Malzahn want to play fast and aggressive, and if their teams can avoid costly turnovers, both offenses could be on the move. I think we are catching a bit of a break on the point total because of how grossly inept the Noles were on offense last season. They only surpassed 16 points in a game twice—one of those was the opener in Ireland, and the other was a trash game against Charleston Southern. Still, I think things will be better for the Seminoles this year under Malzahn, and it is also worth remembering how much Bama struggled last year against scrambling QBs when plays would break down (hello, Vandy!).

On the Alabama side, the Tide have offense everywhere, and even though they have a new QB to break in, there is no reason to think they won’t let him sling it. I think DeBoer wants to play much more like he played at Washington the year he led them to an appearance in the championship game, and that means getting the ball into the hands of super talented playmakers early and often. There will be plenty of games this season where Alabama could push 50 points all by themselves. I think they should go beyond 35 points in this one, which should easily carry us past the total. I’ll take the over.

Alabama vs Florida State Prediction: Over 50.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.