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Alabama Crimson Tide

Alabama Crimson Tide vs Indiana Hoosiers Prediction, Odds and Rose Bowl Picks for Thursday, 01/01/26

Rose BowlESPN
Alabama
Alabama
Thu Jan 1
Indiana
Indiana
WLWLW
Last 5
WWWWW
11-3Record13-0
0-0-0ATS Record0-0-0
0-0O/U Record0-0
Indiana Hoosiers

Alabama vs Indiana Pickswise Expert Predictions

Point Spread Pick
Indiana -6.5(-110)

The opening round of the College Football Playoff is behind us, and there are now just 8 teams remaining in the pursuit of a National Championship. Earlier this month, the 9th-seeded Alabama Crimson Tide rallied from a 17-0 deficit against Oklahoma to knock off the Sooners and advance to the quarterfinal round, while the top-seeded Indiana Hoosiers had a bye in the opening round following an undefeated regular season and a victory in the Big Ten title game. Which of these teams will come out on top in the Rose Bowl on New Year’s Day and advance to the semifinals? It’s almost time to find out. 

Heading into the season, I was very high on Alabama’s chances of capturing a national championship given all of the talent on the roster and the upside of what this team could be. However, the Crimson Tide have not exactly been the team I thought they would be prior to the campaign. With that in mind, it’s hard to ignore the value that we’re getting on Indiana to win Thursday’s contest by only a touchdown in a game where the Hoosiers should hold plenty of advantages. Not only do the Hoosiers have Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza on their side, but Indiana’s extremely balanced offense (2nd in success rate, 2nd in EPA per play, 3rd in points per drive) should see consistent success against an Alabama defense that has struggled at points against teams with strong passing attacks. The Crimson Tide are also operating at a significant disadvantage on special teams in this game, and that is certainly a factor that could rear its ugly head on Thursday. 

While the Alabama defense can be inconsistent, it’s still a solid unit across the board all things considered. However, the Crimson Tide have more questions on offense, if you can believe that. After all, Kalen DeBoer’s team has not been able to effectively run the ball all season long, and those struggles continued into their matchup with Oklahoma a few weeks ago. Jam Miller has been banged up, and even if he does end up playing in this one, it’s far from a guarantee that Alabama will suddenly see success on the ground against an Indiana defense that is 3rd in rushing success rate allowed and 2nd in opponent EPA per rush. Ty Simpson has struggled when pressured this season and the Hoosiers secondary just performed well against Ohio State’s outstanding trio of wide receivers, so I wouldn’t expect them to be intimidated by the Crimson Tide wideouts. Ultimately, I can only look toward laying the points with the top-ranked team in the nation.

Alabama vs Indiana prediction: Indiana -6.5 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to Indiana -7

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Caleb Wilfinger
Game Totals Pick
Under 48.5(-110)

Despite the fact that both offenses have the capability of putting up points, I actually believe that we’re getting a point or two of value on the under in a game where both defenses should have their say by the time the game ends. On one side, the Indiana defense is one of the best units in the nation, as we saw against the likes of Oregon and Ohio State this season. Time and again, the Hoosiers have proven that their success up front is no flue, and they should be able to dominate the matchup against a middling Alabama offensive line and put pressure on Ty Simpson as a result.

As for the Crimson Tide, this is not a vintage Nick Saban era defense, but Kane Womack is still one of the better defensive minds in the country, and I expect his unit to respond to the challenge against an Indiana offense that has largely done what its wanted to against any opponent all season long. Let’s roll with the under on Thursday.

Alabama vs Indiana prediction: Under 48.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 48.

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Caleb Wilfinger
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Caleb Wilfinger

Deputy Editor for Pickswise with years of experience handicapping and giving out winning picks. Lover of all US sports and Southampton FC. For Caleb Wilfinger media enquiries, please email contact@pickswise.com.
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