Baylor Bears vs TCU Horned Frogs Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 10/18/25

The Baylor Bears and their fan base will travel an hour north this weekend to take on the TCU Horned Frogs in a Big 12 matchup. Baylor has won four of their last five games and is currently on a two-game winning streak. Their last game on October 4 was a 35-34 win against Kansas State. Quarterback Sawyer Robertson had another big game, throwing for 345 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception. A pick-6 by Jacob Redding and a game winning field goal helped propel the Bears to victory in the fourth quarter. TCU has had a similar start as Baylor, also starting 4-2, except the Horned Frogs have lost two of their last three games. TCU also played Kansas State in their last contest. The Horned Frogs fell short 41-28 on the road. Quarterback Josh Hoover threw for 376 yards and 3 touchdowns, but he could not limit turnovers with 2 interceptions. TCU was not able to overcome 28 unanswered points from their opponents, falling on the road as slight favorites.

A big offensive game is expected when these two teams meet. Both Robertson and Hoover lead a top-five passing offense in the FBS. Baylor currently ranks 1st in the FBS with 348.7 passing yards per game, and TCU ranks 5th with 322.3 yards per game. Robertson should be well rested heading into this game coming off the bye, and I expect Hoover to bounce back from a poor outing against Kansas State. Hoover had a two interception outing earlier in the season, and he responded the next week throwing four touchdowns and no interceptions against Colorado. The question will be which defense can do enough to slow down their opponent? TCU ranks 77th in the FBS, allowing 373.8 yards per game, and they allow 240.7 passing yards per game, ranking 100th. Baylor’s defense allows a higher total of yards per game at 402.8, ranking 110th, but they only allow 225.7 passing yards per game, ranking 76th. I’m leaning towards the TCU defense in this matchup. Not only are they playing on their home field, but they own a positive +1 turnover margin. That number is substantially better than Baylor’s turnover margin of -4. If TCU can force some turnovers, it should play a big factor in this high scoring game.

TCU -3 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.