Boise State Broncos vs San Diego State Aztecs Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 11/15/25

Both Boise State and San Diego State are coming off their worst performances of the season. For the Broncos, it was a 30-7 loss at home against Fresno State, while the Aztecs lost 38-6 loss on the road at Hawaii. Both games these teams should have won, though San Diego State has been more reliable over the course of the season. Prior to the loss, SDSU was riding a 6-game win streak, including 5 wins with a margin of victory greater than 17. The Aztecs defense has excellent underlying numbers even with the addition of the recent poor performance in Hawaii.

The Aztecs rank top-21 in both quality drive rate allowed and points per quality drive allowed. The SDSU stop-unit is well rounded, ranking 30th in EPA/rush and 31st in EPA/dropback. Furthermore, SDSU ranks top-10 in both net points per drive and defensive success rate. Any way you spin it, this unit has been a large reason for San Diego State’s relative success in 2025. Boise State has had some issues with turnovers here in there, ranking 96th in FBS with 14 turnovers lost this season – which doesn’t fare well against this Aztecs defense. I’m going with SDSU to get the win and I’ll lay the juice on the money line.

Boise State vs San Diego State prediction: San Diego State Aztecs ML (-135) available at time of publishing. Playable up to -140.

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