BYU Cougars vs Texas Tech Red Raiders Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 12/06/25

The Big 12 Championship will be the first one out of the gates on Saturday afternoon, slated to kick off at 11:00 am local time from Arlington TX. The Texas Tech Red Raiders are 11-1 entering this game and a lock for the playoffs, and their only loss came at Arizona State while missing their quarterback. BYU also comes in at 11-1, and their only loss came to the Red Raiders. Yet somehow, the selection committee seems to think BYU isn’t a playoff team if they lose this game. That makes no sense to me. BYU is really good, and definitely worthy of the playoffs; the problem here though is that Texas Tech is the perfectly wrong matchup for the Cougars, and the Red Raiders ought to win this game comfortably as a result. My BYU vs Texas Tech best bet is the Red Raiders -12.5.

BYU is a strong, physical, bullying team. That has been very effective against everyone in the Big 12 except for Texas Tech. That is because Tech is bigger, more physical, and more of a bully. To me, this matchup is simple: these teams are similarly constructed, but Tech is just bigger and better at it. For BYU to pull the upset, it will likely take things like trick plays, funny bounces and turnovers, and special teams anomalies. Just lining up and playing? Red Raiders all day long. Did you know that Texas Tech is 11-1 against the spread on the year also? That is to say, they don’t just win; they cover. And more importantly, it means that the betting market consistently mis-evaluates this team and fails to recognize just how good they are. Folks, this team can win the whole thing if all their players stay healthy.

The first matchup went 29-7 to the Red Raiders. It was in Lubbock, College GameDay was there, Patrick Mahomes, the whole thing. The Red Raiders totally dominated the line of scrimmage, and the BYU freshman QB was overwhelmed. But here is the kicker—the Red Raiders didn’t even play well in that game. Their offense consistently stalled out in the red zone, and they kept kicking field goals that prevented this game from being a total route. Texas Tech is really good, and playing in Jerry World might as well still be a home game. I think they win by two touchdowns (and the committee should still let BYU into the playoffs).

BYU vs Texas Tech Prediction: Texas Tech -12.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.