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BYU Cougars

BYU Cougars vs Texas Tech Red Raiders Prediction, Odds and Big 12 Championship Picks for Today, 12/06/25

Jones AT&T StadiumABC
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Texas Tech
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Texas Tech Red Raiders

BYU vs Texas Tech Best Bets

Point Spread PickBest Bet
Texas Tech -12.5(-115)

The Big 12 Championship will be the first one out of the gates on Saturday afternoon, slated to kick off at 11:00 am local time from Arlington, TX. The Texas Tech Red Raiders are 11-1 entering this game and a lock for the playoffs, and their only loss came at Arizona State while missing their quarterback. BYU also comes in at 11-1, and the Cougars’ only loss came to the Red Raiders. Yet somehow, the selection committee seems to think BYU isn’t a playoff team if they lose this game. That makes no sense to me. BYU is really good, and definitely worthy of the playoffs; the problem here, though, is that Texas Tech is the perfectly wrong matchup for the Cougars, and the Red Raiders ought to win this game comfortably as a result. My BYU vs. Texas Tech best bet is the Red Raiders -12.5.

BYU is a strong, physical, bullying team. That has been very effective against everyone in the Big 12 except for Texas Tech. That is because Tech is bigger, more physical, and more of a bully. To me, this matchup is simple: these teams are similarly constructed, but Tech is just bigger and better at it. For BYU to pull the upset, it will likely take things like trick plays, funny bounces and turnovers, and special teams anomalies. Just lining up and playing? Red Raiders all day long. Did you know that Texas Tech is 11-1 against the spread on the year also? That is to say, they don’t just win; they cover. And more importantly, it means that the betting market consistently mis-evaluates this team and fails to recognize just how good they are. Folks, this team can win the whole thing if all their players stay healthy.

The first matchup went 29-7 to the Red Raiders. It was in Lubbock, College GameDay was there, Patrick Mahomes, the whole thing. The Red Raiders totally dominated the line of scrimmage, and the BYU freshman QB was overwhelmed. But here is the kicker—the Red Raiders didn’t even play well in that game. Their offense consistently stalled out in the red zone, and they kept kicking field goals that prevented this game from being a total route. Texas Tech is really good, and playing in Jerry World might as well still be a home game. I think they win by 2 touchdowns (and the committee should still let BYU into the playoffs).

BYU vs Texas Tech prediction: Texas Tech Red Raiders -12.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Chad Hartsock

BYU vs Texas Tech Pickswise Expert Predictions

Game Totals Pick
Under 49.5(-110)

There is a danger in being misled if you are just a box score reader. One might look at the first matchup, see the 29-7 final, and wonder why in the world the total would jump so much higher in the rematch. But I do think it is likely that both teams score more than they did the first time around. Will they crack 50? That’s a tougher call, but I do like this game to stay just under. Mostly, I think that has to do with two factors: the elite Red Raider defense, and the odd failure of the Texas Tech offense in the red zone.

The Tech defense is elite and special. They are #1 in the country against the run, allowing just 68.9 yards per game. That is not a type-o. There are only 12 teams in the entire nation allowing less than 100 yards, and 10 of them are in the playoff conversation, and the Red Raiders allow even less than all of them. BYU’s offense? Definitely a ground attack. Sure, part of the stat has to do with everyone playing from way behind against Tech, but it is still telling here. BYU will have to come out of its preferred attack if it wants to sustain drives and score points.

The other factor is the anomalous struggles of the Red Raiders in the red zone. They convert touchdowns at one of the lowest rates in the country, which is a total mystery for an offense as talented as this one. But it keeps happening, and if it happens against a good BYU defense, then it will keep this scoring number low. (Also, at whatever point Tech gets bounced from the playoffs, the failures in the red zone are very likely to be the reason why.) We still have room for a 31-17 result here, and unless Tech starts converting a lot of TDs that they haven’t all season, that feels like about the top end of the scoring to me. I’ll take the under.

BYU vs Texas Tech prediction: Under 49.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Chad Hartsock
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Chad Hartsock

A teacher and minister by training, a fantasy sports enthusiast and sports bettor by hobby. I live in the Great Smoky Mountains, and I especially love NCAAF, NFL, NCAAB and MLB. For Chad Hartsock media enquiries, please email contact@pickswise.com.
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Point Spread

Texas Tech has covered the spread in its last 8 at home.

Money Line

Texas Tech has won 17 of its last 20 at home.

Game Totals

The Over is 7-3 in Texas Tech's last 10 home games.

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