California Golden Bears

California Golden Bears vs Hawaii Rainbow Warriors Prediction, Odds and Hawaii Bowl Picks for Today, 12/24/25

Clarence T. C. Ching Athletics ComplexESPN
California
California
Today
Hawaii
Hawaii
LLWLW
Last 5
WLWLW
7-5Record8-4
0-0-0ATS Record0-0-0
0-0O/U Record0-0
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

California vs Hawaii Pickswise Expert Predictions

Point Spread Pick
California +1.0(-110)

Christmas Eve will feature one college football bowl game, and it will be the California Bears taking on the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors in the Hawai’i Bowl. This will be the first time since 2019 that Hawai’i will compete in this bowl game, played on its home field. The Rainbow Warriors have a 5-4 record all time when playing in the Hawai’i Bowl. Their record this season was 8-4, and they won 2 of their last 4 games. Micah Alejado led Hawai’i’s offense this season with 2832 yards passing, 21 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. Their defense was led by senior Jackie Johnson III, who finished the season with 7.5 sacks. Hawai’i’s best win this season was a 38-6 win against a San Diego State team that finished its season 9-3.

California finished 7-5, but lost 3 of their its 5 games. The Bears’ offense is led by freshman quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, who threw for 3117 yards, 17 touchdowns and 9 interceptions this season. Cal’s defense was led by linebacker Cade Uluave, who finished the season with 88 tackles. The Bears’ best wins were at the end of the season when they beat 21st-ranked SMU 38-35 and 15th-ranked Louisville 29-26. 

At first glance, the story of this game seems to be Hawai’i playing in its home state, but another storyline to watch is California quarterback and potential 2026 Heisman-hopeful Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele returning to his home state. The freshman quarterback announced a couple of weeks ago that he plans to stay in Berkeley next season, so all eyes will be on the future when Sagapolutele tries to cap off his first year with a bowl win. Hawai’i’s quarterback, Micah Alejado, will not only be a tough test for Sagapolutele in this matchup, but also an emotional one. The two quarterbacks were childhood friends in Hawai’i. They grew up playing with and against one another. Alejado will be without his top receiver Jackson Harris in this game due to the transfer portal. Harris finished the season leading Hawai’i in receiving with 963 yards and 12 touchdowns. I believe California has the higher ceiling in this matchup, and I’ll back them in Sagapolutele’s homecoming. 

California vs Hawaii prediction: Cal Golden Bears +1 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to PK.

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NBA and college football handicapper for Pickswise.
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Same Game Parlay

Money Line
California Win
Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Landon Sims (HAW) to score a TD

California Golden Bears ML over Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (-102)

At first glance, the story of this game seems to be Hawaii playing in their home state, but our expert is honing in on California quarterback and potential 2026 Heisman hopeful Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (3,117 yards, 17 passing touchdowns) to show out in his first game back in his home state. The freshman quarterback announced that he plans to stay in Berkeley for next season, and our expert trusts in Sagapolutele and this upstart Cal team to cap off a solid season with a bowl win. There is certainly a path to victory for the Bears in this game, as California will have an edge against a Hawaii defense that struggles to stop the run and was recently shredded by UNLV’s potent offense in one of its most recent games.

On the other side, Hawaii quarterback Micah Alejado will be without his top receiver Jackson Harris in this game, and this is a pretty significant loss considering that Harris finished the season leading Hawaii in receiving (963 yards and 12 touchdowns). Furthermore, the California defense is 43rd in success rate allowed, so they should also hold an advantage against a Hawaii offense that 95th in success rate and could struggle to move the ball through the air. Our expert believes that California has the higher ceiling in this matchup, so we’ll back them in Sagapolutele’s homecoming game.

Landon Sims (HAW) anytime touchdown scorer (+185)

As previously mentioned, it’s likely going to be difficult for Hawaii to move the ball through the air given the fact that Rainbow Warriors are going to be down their top wide receiver in this game. Additionally, the California defense is much better against the pass (43rd in passing success rate allowed, 55th in EPA per dropback) compared to its metrics against the run (103rd in EPA per rush allowed, 89th in rushing success rate allowed).

That’s where Hawaii running back Landon Sims comes in. While he’s not the top ball-carrier on the depth chart, Sims has carved out a lane for himself within this offense, having record double-digit touches in 11 of the 12 games played this season. Look for the capable pass-catcher to be available around the end zone for his 6th touchdown of the season on Wednesday.

Top Trends
Point Spread

Hawaii has covered the spread in 14 of its last 16 games at home.

Game Totals

4 of Hawaii's last 5 matchups with California have stayed under the Total.

Money Line

Hawaii has won 7 of its last 10 games against teams with a winning record.

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