Clemson Tigers vs North Carolina Tar Heels Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 10/04/25

If there were a category for college football teams that were the least predictable for the quality of play they will provide each week, Clemson and North Carolina may be the top two teams in that category. The 1-3 Clemson Tigers will travel to the 2-2 North Carolina Tar Heels this Saturday in a matchup of two teams looking for their first conference win of the season. This is not the position that college football playoff-hopeful Clemson thought that they would be in to start the season. Clemson has lost their last three games. Their last loss was a 34-21 defeat on their home field against Syracuse. Quarterback Cade Klubnik threw the ball 60 times in this game. He completed 37 passes for 363 yards and 3 touchdowns. North Carolina is coming into this game off a loss to UCF. The Tar Heels lost the game on the road 34-9. Quarterback Gio Lopez finished this game with 87 yards passing and 2 interceptions. North Carolina has now played two FBS opponents under head coach Bill Belichick and they have been outscored in those games by a combined score of 82-23. 

I want to acknowledge that North Carolina has been bad this season under Belichick. They rank 134th in total yards on offense, 124th in passing yards per game, and 114th in rushing yards. Their defense has been middle of the pack in ranking, but they have struggled to get off the field on third downs, allowing teams to convert 44% of the time. The Tar Heels had a lot of roster and coaching turnover this last offseason, so it is still unclear what the future will look like in North Carolina. What I am certain of is Clemson has not performed well enough in four games to justify being double digit, road favorites. The Tigers have three frustrating losses, with two of those coming on their home field. In the one game they won this season against Troy, Clemson did not win in convincing fashion. They have failed to run the ball successfully, ranking 112th in rushing, and they have only been able to manage to score on average 19.8 points per game. Their defense, which contains potential lottery pick players, ranks 73rd in the FBS with 361.5 yards allowed per game. The Tigers have had opportunities to prove they are better than they have played, and they have had these opportunities on their home field. I don’t feel they have earned to be favorites by this many points now that they are playing on the road.

North Carolina +14 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number