Colorado Buffaloes vs TCU Horned Frogs Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 10/04/25

The last game on the Big 12 slate this week is Colorado vs TCU. The Buffaloes are looking to bounce back from a tough home loss to BYU last week, a game in which they led most of the way. The Buffs are now 0-2 in conference play. The Horned Frogs took a tough loss at Arizona State, a game that they very well could have won. I wouldn’t overreact to that loss—ASU is a good team, playing at home, on a Friday night, and that is a lot to overcome. Back at home this weekend, I look for TCU to bounce back with a definitive victory. The -13.5 line feels like a carrot dangling, but I’m taking it anyway. Give me the Frogs to cover.

TCU is a high-powered offense with a veteran QB leading the charge. They are expected to score a ton of points most weeks. Their problem last weekend was that they were completely incapable of running the ball against Arizona State. That is mostly a statement about how good the Sun Devils are defensively, and I think the Frogs will get back in balance this week against a much less formidable Colorado front 7. On the other side, I have my concerns about Colorado QB Kaidon Salter. The Liberty transfer has not been very good so far, and he only managed 119 yards last week against BYU. Indeed, they only let him put it in the air 16 times. You can’t keep up with TCU that way. My Colorado vs TCU prediction is TCU -13.5.

Colorado vs TCU Prediction: TCU -13.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

This is a tough game to project in terms of the game total, and 58 is a high bar to reach. The Colorado Buffaloes have not been over that game total yet this season. TCU has been over it in 3 of 4 games though. TCU is a team that likes to push the pace; Colorado is much less explosive. So does this game turn into another classic Big 12 shootout with little to no defense being played? Or does this game go another way? My lean is toward the under, because I see several paths that might get us there. I’ll play the game total under 58.

I have some concerns about the Colorado offense. As I wrote in the spread column, Colorado QB Kaidon Salter has been a disappointment so far in Boulder. They are not letting him throw much, and Colorado is preferring a safer, more ball-control style of play. TCU is not great on defense, but it is hard to see the Buffs running up 30 points on the scoreboard. TCU certainly can, but to get to this kind of game total, it usually takes both teams scoring. I kind of expect TCU to get out to a lead of a couple of scores by the early second half, then be more content to melt this game away. I like the chances on the under.

Colorado vs TCU Prediction: Under 58 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.