Connecticut Huskies vs Boston College Eagles Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 10/18/25

Bill O’Brien and the Boston College Eagles are struggling. Sitting at 1-5, the Eagles have yet to beat an FBS opponent, as their only win of the season was in Week 1 against Fordham. Most recently, BC scored just 17 combined points against Pitt and Clemson in back-to-back weeks. Now, the Eagles will host a regional non-conference opponent in the UConn Huskies, who come into this contest at 4-2 following a bye week and figure to be way more locked-in on this game than the Eagles. 

The Huskies have played one of the worst strength-of-schedules in the country, but it’s not like Boston College’s is much better. The Eagles are outside the top-90 in that aspect and have lost to teams like Michigan State, Stanford and Cal – all of whom are right near UConn in my power ratings. In fact, I have UConn above Boston College in my power ratings even when accounting for home-field advantage – of which the Eagles don’t have much.

Jim Mora’s Huskies lean more to the pass than they do the run in most cases, and it makes sense given how well QB Joe Fagnano has played. The 6’4” senior has been in college for what has felt like an eternity due to COVID eligibility and injuries – dating back to 2019 when he started with Maine – and it shows in his play. He has thrown 11 touchdowns this year with 0 interceptions and just 3 turnover-worthy plays, while completing just over 67% of his passes. Via his shoulder, the Huskies are 23rd in yards per play against FBS opponents this season, in addition to top-15 in PPA per pass and passing downs PPA since Week 3. Moreover, UConn is 3rd nationally in turnover margin and 9th in penalties per game against FBS opponents.

Averaging more than 4.5 points per quality drive in the last 5 weeks, expect a pumped-up UConn offense to be able to move the ball up and down the field against what figures to be a lifeless Boston College defense. For reference, over the last month or so, the Eagles are outside the top 110 in most of the defensive metrics I evaluate every week, including points allowed per quality drive and PPA per play allowed. Going one step further, the Eagles are 126th in passing downs PPA and 129th in PPA per pass in that time. When you combine those poor passing numbers with BC’s 128th-ranked havoc rate, it’s hard not to see a path to success for the Huskies. I will trust the numbers here and take UConn, who should be vastly more motivated in this game than BC.

UConn vs Boston College prediction: UConn Huskies ML (+105) at the time of publishing. Playable to -110.

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