Duke Blue Devils vs Virginia Cavaliers Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 12/06/25

The Duke Blue Devils and Virginia Cavaliers battle for the ACC Championship less than a month removed from a regular season matchup that saw the Cavs dominate 34-17, limiting Duke to a whopping 42 rushing yards. While the cliché of “it’s hard to beat a team twice” might hold up in some cases, Virginia won the first meeting comfortably, and I wouldn’t be shocked if we saw a similar result. Duke squeaked into this game on the fifth tiebreaker and have allowed 33.3 points per game to their final 6 opponents of the season in a 3-3 stretch. On the contrary, the Virginia defense has produced results consistently this season behind a strong pass rush that averages 2.5 sacks per game. 

The Cavaliers rank top-30 in both success rate and net points per drive defensively. Duke has found itself in some shootouts this season, but proved to struggle against the Virginia front seven last time out. While the Virginia defense has been solid all year, it’s tough to say the same for a Duke unit that ranks 112th in defensive success rate and 114th in quality drive rate allowed. The Blue Devils primarily struggle against the pass which doesn’t bode well against Chandler Morris and co. If Morris can limit the turnovers — 2 of his 7 total INTs came against Duke — then Virginia has shown they are built to handle this Duke squad. I’ll take Virginia to cover the spread and claim the ACC title.

ACC Championship prediction: Virginia Cavaliers -4 over Duke Blue Devils (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

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