HomeCollege FootballCollege Football PredictionsDuke Blue Devils vs Virginia Cavaliers Prediction, Odds and ACC Championship Picks

Duke Blue Devils vs Virginia Cavaliers Prediction, Odds and ACC Championship Picks for Today, 12/06/25

Updated: 8:52 AM ET Dec 06, 2025

Bank of America StadiumABC

Duke

8:00 PM ETToday

Virginia

WLLWW	Last 5	WWLWW
7-5	Record	10-2
0-0-0	ATS Record	0-0-0
0-0	O/U Record	0-0

Duke vs Virginia Pickswise Expert Predictions

Point Spread Pick

Virginia -4.0(-110)

Reasoning

The Duke Blue Devils and Virginia Cavaliers battle for the ACC Championship less than a month removed from a regular season matchup that saw the Cavs dominate 34-17, limiting Duke to a whopping 42 rushing yards. While the cliché of “it’s hard to beat a team twice” might hold up in some cases, Virginia won the first meeting comfortably, and I wouldn’t be shocked if we saw a similar result. Duke squeaked into this game on the fifth tiebreaker and have allowed 33.3 points per game to their final 6 opponents of the season in a 3-3 stretch. On the contrary, the Virginia defense has produced results consistently this season behind a strong pass rush that averages 2.5 sacks per game.

The Cavaliers rank top-30 in both success rate and net points per drive defensively. Duke has found itself in some shootouts this season, but proved to struggle against the Virginia front seven last time out. While the Virginia defense has been solid all year, it’s tough to say the same for a Duke unit that ranks 112th in defensive success rate and 114th in quality drive rate allowed. The Blue Devils primarily struggle against the pass which doesn’t bode well against Chandler Morris and co. If Morris can limit the turnovers — 2 of his 7 total INTs came against Duke — then Virginia has shown they are built to handle this Duke squad. I’ll take Virginia to cover the spread and claim the ACC title.

ACC Championship prediction: Virginia Cavaliers -4 over Duke Blue Devils (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

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Game Totals Pick

Over 57.5(-110)

Reasoning

The under has cashed in 7 consecutive Virginia games, while the Duke Blue Devils are 4-1 to the over in their last 5 entering the ACC Championship game. These teams met just a few weeks back in a regular season matchup that finished with a combined total of 51, going under the closing total of 60. In the first meeting, Duke struggled mightily to get the run game going, posting a total of 42 rushing yards on 1.8 YPC. This time around, I expect the Blue Devils to lean on the passing game and let QB Darian Mensah loose. The sophomore QB has been slinging it this season with a 28:4 TD:INT ratio and has the Blue Devils ranking top-30 in EPA/dropback.

On the flipside, Virginia found success last time out in all 3 phases, posting over 310 passing yards and 220 rushing yards in the first meeting against the Blue Devils. It’s hard to expect anything different this time around as Duke has surrendered over 33 points per game throughout the final half of the season behind a defensive unit that ranks 112th in success rate and 114th in quality drive rate allowed. With all things considered, I’ve got the ACC Championship going over.

ACC Championship prediction: Over 57.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

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Ryan is a die-hard sports fan with a passion for crunching numbers and finding winning picks. He works on the Pickswise social media team and recently began handicapping MLB games. He has years of experience delivering winning picks in both college football and the UFC and is looking to expand his areas of expertise. For Ryan Bunnell media enquiries, please email contact@pickswise.com.

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The Under is 7-3 in Virginia's last 10 games.

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