Florida State Seminoles vs Florida Gators Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 11/29/25

The striking part of this matchup is the line itself. Florida is 3–8, fresh off a primetime blowout loss to Tennessee, and by all logic should not be laying points to anyone — yet they are a two-point favorite over a Florida State team fighting for bowl eligibility at 5–6. That alone tells you where the oddsmakers are leaning.

This is Florida’s final game, the end of a forgettable season before a coaching reset. But rivalry games create their own reality, and this is the last chance for the Gators to take something meaningful into the offseason. More importantly, a win here would eliminate Florida State from bowl contention, a program that was ranked inside the top 10 earlier this year. That kind of spoiler motivation matters. Florida State has its own revenge narrative after last year’s loss, and on paper the Seminoles look like an attractive underdog. But if the team fighting for its postseason life were truly in the stronger position, they wouldn’t be catching points from a 3-8 opponent. The Gators have nothing left to lose, complete freedom to empty the playbook, and home-field intensity behind them. Florida State, despite the bowl motivation, has struggled to handle pressure in key moments all season. The market is signaling clearly: Florida is the right side.

Florida State vs Florida prediction: Florida -2 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to the number.