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Georgia Bulldogs

Georgia Bulldogs vs Alabama Crimson Tide Prediction, Odds and SEC Championship Picks for Today, 12/06/25

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Alabama Crimson Tide

Georgia vs Alabama Pickswise Expert Predictions

Point Spread Pick
Alabama +2.5(+100)

Amid all of the conference realignment and transfer portal chaos, the SEC Championship consists of a matchup that college football fans know all too well. On Saturday, the Georgia Bulldogs and the Alabama Crimson Tide will battle for a conference championship at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, where the Bulldogs just played last week against Georgia Tech. As it stands, no matter who wins this game, Alabama and Georgia will have accounted for 11 of the last 12 SEC champions, and this will be the 4th time these two programs have met for a conference title in that span. 

The last time Alabama met Georgia in this spot, the Tide knocked off the #1 Bulldogs, which ultimately put the Tide into the then-4-team College Football Playoff and booted the ‘Dawgs out. Since then, the Tide and the ‘Dawgs have met twice in a regular season setting, both of which resulted in Alabama wins under Kalen DeBoer. As you probably know, Kirby Smart is just 1-7 SU against Alabama since he took over as the head coach in Athens.

I picked Alabama to win the SEC Championship (and the National Championship) back before the season started, and I have no reason to jump off the boat now – even with the Tide putting me through the ringer seemingly every week. When Alabama went into Athens and snapped Georgia’s 33-game, nearly 6-year home winning streak back in September, the Bulldogs were laying 2.5 points. Fast forward to this upcoming matchup, and you will see Georgia is favored by that same margin. Well, on the surface it looks the same, but being favored by 2.5 points on a neutral would mean oddsmakers have Georgia around a 5.5-point favorite – give or take a half-point or so – if this game was played in Athens this weekend. I simply disagree with that, as I have this game much closer to a pick ‘em on a neutral. 

There’s not much to pick apart with these teams that you don’t already know. Simply put, these are two of the best teams in college football on both sides of the line of scrimmage. By the numbers, Georgia has been more efficient offensively over the last month and some change, but the Bulldogs have played a worse collection of defenses in that span compared to the Tide. However, on the opposite side of the ball and against a similarly mediocre collection of offenses, Alabama has the better efficiency metrics of late. For reference, the Tide are top-5 in PPA per play and points allowed per quality drive since Week 10, which includes top-15 marks on standard downs and passing downs, as well as against both the run and the pass. As a cherry on top, the Tide are top-15 in havoc generated over that span, and they are slightly better at preventing touchdowns than the Bulldogs on the same amount of red-zone trips allowed this season. 

It might be beneficial to wait for a potential 3 to pop in the market, but if one does appear, it won’t last very long. All things considered, I’ll lean to Alabama at the current price. 

SEC Championship prediction: Alabama Crimson Tide +2.5 over Georgia Bulldogs (+100) available at the time of publishing. Playable to +2.

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Sam Avellone
Game Totals Pick
Under 48.0(-105)

When these teams met in Athens in September, the total closed at 54 points and the game stayed under by 9. As such, oddsmakers adjusted the total to 47.5 or 48 – depending on where you shop – for this game. It will be the lowest point total in this head-to-head series since the 2018 National Championship, a game in which the total closed at 45.5. With a final score of 26-23 in favor of Alabama, the total went over due to 9 points scored in overtime. As such, every single meeting with Alabama has gone over this number in Kirby Smart’s tenure aside from the most recent meeting in Athens.

Despite the previous streak of 7 overs, I like this matchup to stay under the total for a few reasons. First, both of these offenses are very methodical and don’t carry a ton of explosivity. Alabama and Georgia mutually reside outside the top 100 in seconds per play, outside the top 50 in explosiveness per play on the season, and 90th or worse in explosiveness per play since Week 10. Second, on the other side of the ball, the Tide and the ‘Dawgs mutually sit in the top 15 in plays allowed of at least 20 yards. While Georgia has been better at limiting explosives on a per play basis of late, the ‘Dawgs have been excellent at limiting passing explosives, and the Tide have been just as good at limiting rushing explosives over the 5 weeks – which is where the strengths of those offenses lie, respectively. 

Finally, there’s plenty more at stake for both of these teams. It’s hard to imagine either team dropping out of the CFP with a loss here, so – while the SEC Championship still holds value – I’m not sure either coaching staff is going to put its players in harm’s way when as many as 4 more games lie ahead in a quest for a national title. Look for this to be a lower-scoring, defensive game controlled more by methodical offensive drives and time of possession than points.

Georgia vs Alabama prediction: Under 48 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable to 47.

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Sam Avellone
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Sam Avellone

Long-time suffering Browns fan born and raised in the greater Cleveland, Ohio area who now resides in SEC country. University of South Carolina alum. Sports handicapper for close to 10 years with a primary focus on NCAAB while enjoying NFL, PGA, NCAAF, NBA, and Soccer. For Sam Avellone media enquiries, please email contact@pickswise.com.
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Top Trends
Point Spread

Alabama is 9-1 against the spread in its last 10 home games.

Game Totals

Georgia's last 3 games have stayed under the Total.

Money Line

Georgia has won 9 of its last 11 on the road.

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