Sam Houston State Bearkats vs Texas Longhorns Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 09/20/25

The Texas Longhorns have looked mighty unimpressive through the first three weeks of the season, even showing some signs of struggle against a far inferior UTEP squad. With that being said, Sam Houston State likely boasts the worst defensive unit Texas will see this season, ranking 134th in defensive EPA margin and 114th in defensive success rate against the pass. If there was ever a game for Arch Manning to break out of his early-season blues, it would be against this Bearkats’ defense. I expect the Longhorns to make a statement in a dominant win for the first time this season, and for the offense to roll early and often in this matchup.

As for Sam Houston’s offense, there isn’t much to write home about. Texas’ defense is elite, ranking top-15 in success rate. With that being said, the Bearkats average a respectable 21.6 points per game, and even a single touchdown could help push this one over. I have the Longhorns projected for over 40 points by themselves, so Texas could very well push this one over themselves. I’ll take the over.

Sam Houston State vs Texas prediction: Over 51.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

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