Indiana Hoosiers vs Ohio State Buckeyes Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 12/06/25

The top 2 teams in the country will meet in the Big Ten Championship on Saturday night when the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Indiana Hoosiers clash at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. These are the only undefeated teams left in the country, so whoever wins this game will be the lone undefeated team going into the CFP as the #1 seed. The loser will still likely get a first-round bye, so other than the official moniker of being Big Ten Champions, there isn’t much at risk for either of these teams if we’re being honest with ourselves. Though, I am still of the opinion that winning a conference championship is a significant milestone that should continue to be celebrated. 

That said, there’s an argument to be made that this could be a flat spot for the Buckeyes. Having gotten the Michigan monkey off its back, Ohio State could fall victim to the dreaded hangover here, especially now that its sights are likely set more on repeating as national champions than winning the Big Ten title. Of course, I am speculating, but given the fact that this is Indiana’s first-ever Big Ten Championship appearance on the gridiron, motivation might be slightly higher for the Hoosiers here – though, again, I will admit I’m splitting hairs when I say that. 

These resumes are very similar in terms of strength of schedule, but Indiana has the most impressive win of the bunch having beaten the Ducks in Oregon back in early October. On the field, both teams have been similarly efficient offensively. Ohio State and Indiana are both top-15 in scoring, top-25 in total offense, top-2 in third-down conversion rate, and top-10 in both PPA per play and success rate on the season as a whole. Those numbers haven’t dropped off much recently, as the Buckeyes and the Hoosiers are top-10 in PPA per play, top-5 in success rate, and top-10 in points scored per quality drive outside of garbage time over the last 5 weeks. 

It’s much the same on the other side of the ball, where the Hoosiers and the Buckeyes are top-10 in a vast majority of key season-long defensive metrics including scoring, total defense, and red-zone touchdown rate allowed. Like on the offensive side, that production hasn’t dropped off much in recent weeks, though Ohio State has been slightly better on a down-to-down basis – particularly against the pass. 

If you’re asking me to pick which one of these teams is most likely to go on to win the national title, I would say Ohio State. However, in this particular game, considering how even these teams are on paper and the potential, ever-so-slight motivational/situational advantage for the Hoosiers, I will lean to Indiana to keep this game within the number. After all, Indiana has slowly crept up my power ratings all year long to a point where the Hoosiers have been within 3 points of the Buckeyes for over a month. As such, I have OSU around a 2-point favorite in this neutral-site game, and will trust my projections with this pick. 

Big Ten Championship prediction: Indiana Hoosiers +4.5 over Ohio State Buckeyes (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable to +3.5.

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