Indiana Hoosiers

Indiana Hoosiers vs Ohio State Buckeyes Prediction, Odds and Big Ten Championship Picks for Today, 12/06/25

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Ohio State Buckeyes

Indiana vs Ohio State Best Bets

Game Totals PickBest Bet
Under 48.5(-118)

For as wishy-washy as my spread pick felt on this game, my opinion on the total is more clear. Like Alabama and Georgia in the SEC Championship, I expect Ohio State and Indiana to approach the Big Ten Championship methodically from an offensive perspective. The Buckeyes have had the slowest, most methodical offense in the country all season long in order to preserve their health for as many as 4 extra games following the regular season, and the Hoosiers were similar in their approach – ranking just 11 spots higher than the Buckeyes in seconds per play (125th out of 136 teams). Both teams have been excellent on standard downs, which puts their offenses in better positions to convert on third down and keep drives alive. Furthermore, these teams are very good at limiting turnovers and penalties, which goes a long way in preserving drives, as well.

Ohio State and Indiana have been extremely difficult to score on all year. The Buckeyes yield less than 8 points per game on average and have yet to allow more than 16 points, while the Hoosiers average about 11 points allowed and have surrendered 20 or more points just twice – both on the road at Oregon and at Penn State. These defenses are elite in the red zone, as they have surrendered just 12 combined red-zone touchdowns this year – which would be good for 3rd nationally if they were one unit. Moreover, Ohio State and Indiana have allowed 4.2 yards per play or fewer over their last 3 games, and opponents have converted fewer than 40% of third downs over that same span. Not to mention, both teams are top-10 in preventing plays of at least 20 yards. 

Given the mutually methodical offensive approach these teams are expected to deploy, in addition to how elite these defenses have been, points may be at a premium here. At the current price, I like a play on the under in the Big Ten title game. 

Indiana vs Ohio State best bet: Under 48.5 (-118) available at the time of publishing. Playable to 47.

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Indiana vs Ohio State Pickswise Expert Predictions

Point Spread Pick
Indiana +4.5(-110)

The top 2 teams in the country will meet in the Big Ten Championship on Saturday night when the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Indiana Hoosiers clash at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. These are the only undefeated teams left in the country, so whoever wins this game will be the lone undefeated team going into the CFP as the #1 seed. The loser will still likely get a first-round bye, so other than the official moniker of being Big Ten Champions, there isn’t much at risk for either of these teams if we’re being honest with ourselves. Though, I am still of the opinion that winning a conference championship is a significant milestone that should continue to be celebrated. 

That said, there’s an argument to be made that this could be a flat spot for the Buckeyes. Having gotten the Michigan monkey off its back, Ohio State could fall victim to the dreaded hangover here, especially now that its sights are likely set more on repeating as national champions than winning the Big Ten title. Of course, I am speculating, but given the fact that this is Indiana’s first-ever Big Ten Championship appearance on the gridiron, motivation might be slightly higher for the Hoosiers here – though, again, I will admit I’m splitting hairs when I say that. 

These resumes are very similar in terms of strength of schedule, but Indiana has the most impressive win of the bunch having beaten the Ducks in Oregon back in early October. On the field, both teams have been similarly efficient offensively. Ohio State and Indiana are both top-15 in scoring, top-25 in total offense, top-2 in third-down conversion rate, and top-10 in both PPA per play and success rate on the season as a whole. Those numbers haven’t dropped off much recently, as the Buckeyes and the Hoosiers are top-10 in PPA per play, top-5 in success rate, and top-10 in points scored per quality drive outside of garbage time over the last 5 weeks. 

It’s much the same on the other side of the ball, where the Hoosiers and the Buckeyes are top-10 in a vast majority of key season-long defensive metrics including scoring, total defense, and red-zone touchdown rate allowed. Like on the offensive side, that production hasn’t dropped off much in recent weeks, though Ohio State has been slightly better on a down-to-down basis – particularly against the pass. 

If you’re asking me to pick which one of these teams is most likely to go on to win the national title, I would say Ohio State. However, in this particular game, considering how even these teams are on paper and the potential, ever-so-slight motivational/situational advantage for the Hoosiers, I will lean to Indiana to keep this game within the number. After all, Indiana has slowly crept up my power ratings all year long to a point where the Hoosiers have been within 3 points of the Buckeyes for over a month. As such, I have OSU around a 2-point favorite in this neutral-site game, and will trust my projections with this pick. 

Big Ten Championship prediction: Indiana Hoosiers +4.5 over Ohio State Buckeyes (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable to +3.5.

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Long-time suffering Browns fan born and raised in the greater Cleveland, Ohio area who now resides in SEC country. University of South Carolina alum. Sports handicapper for close to 10 years with a primary focus on NCAAB while enjoying NFL, PGA, NCAAF, NBA, and Soccer. For Sam Avellone media enquiries, please email contact@pickswise.com.
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Game Totals

The Over is 8-4 in Indiana's games this season.

Money Line

Ohio State has won 21 of its last 22 games.

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