Indiana Hoosiers vs Purdue Boilermakers Prediction, Odds and Picks for Friday, 11/28/25

The Old Oaken Bucket rivalry creates unique dynamics every season, but this year the contrast between these two programs makes the matchup especially intriguing from a betting standpoint. Indiana comes in at 11–0, staring at a potential 12–0 regular season and preparing for a monumental Big Ten Championship showdown — possibly against the defending national champions and current No. 1 team in the country. That is where every ounce of Indiana’s emotional and strategic attention is directed. Beating Purdue is expected; beating Ohio State is the real task. And because of that, this week becomes a textbook flat spot.

Indiana has absolutely no incentive to run up the score. The Hoosiers are already playoff-bound and with the biggest game in program history a week away, Coach Cig will be cautious. Protecting starters, limiting the injury risk, shortening the game, and avoiding unnecessary physicality are all priorities. If Indiana gets up early, the likelihood of them calling off the dogs is extremely high. Purdue, on the other hand, is 2–9 with no Big Ten wins — but that makes this their bowl game. Teams with nothing left to play for except pride often bring their sharpest effort in rivalry week. Purdue doesn’t need to win outright to cash; they simply need to compete with intensity and take advantage of Indiana’s predictable conservatism. The spread assumes Indiana plays four full quarters at peak motivation — something that is nearly impossible to expect given the timing, the stakes, and the injury risks. Purdue, meanwhile, walks in loose, motivated, and with every reason to empty the playbook. In spots like this, the big dog is exactly the right side.

Indiana vs Purdue prediction: Purdue +28 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to the number.