Iowa State Cyclones vs Cincinnati Bearcats Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 10/04/25

The Iowa State Cyclones take on the Cincinnati Bearcats in a Big 12 clash that is sneaky good. The Cyclones enter the game at 4-0, while the Bearcats come in at 3-1. It seems like the entire Big 12 conference is good, even if not great, and both teams have a favorable schedule going forward. A win here could propel either team to a great season. The trick in this game is that Cincinnati is the slight favorite at home, but I suspect most of the public money will eventually fall with Iowa State (undefeated, ranked, name recognition). That ought to get our attention, and I think people will be surprised at how good Cincinnati is, especially on the offensive side of the ball. I know Iowa State tends to make games ugly and low-scoring, but watch for this one to escalate quickly. I am staying away from a side here (although I do think the Bearcats are a sneaky pick), and instead going with the game total over 55.

Let’s start with Iowa State. They are back to their core principles this year, which is a ground attack with 2 or 3 tight ends on the field, and when they throw, it is a block-and-leak approach to those tight ends. The constant use of the heavy package allows them to bully the line of scrimmage while still picking up chunk yardage to unexpected receivers. Cincinnati does not have the defensive personnel to win a trench fight with the Cyclones. The problem for Iowa State, however, would come if they are down a couple scores and have to abandon the run. I doubt that happens though. On the other side, Cincinnati has a QB with some moxie, and he is fun. Brendan Sorsby threw for nearly 400 yards last week against Kansas, and he ran for 52 more. They run a read-option offense, and if you stack the box, Sorsby will absolutely challenge you down the sideline in single coverage. This offense is good, and I think they can score on the Cyclones. I would be shocked if someone doesn’t get to 30 in this game, and I bet they trade scores most of the afternoon. Give me the over.

Iowa State vs Cincinnati Prediction: Over 55 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.