Iowa State Cyclones vs Kansas State Wildcats Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 08/23/25

College football is back, and there aren’t many better ways to ring in a new season than with a ranked matchup. To kick off the 2025 regular season, college football fans will be treated to a rivalry matchup dubbed “Farmageddon.” However, it’s going to look a little bit different this year being that Iowa State and Kansas State will play each other at Aviva Stadium over in Dublin, Ireland. 

The Kansas State Wildcats should resemble the team they had last year. They are top 15 nationally in overall returning production, including over 70% returning on the offensive side of the ball after finishing top 50 in scoring and total offense. The Wildcats will have to replace a few starting offensive linemen and star running back DJ Giddens, but they return quarterback Avery Johnson, leading wide receiver Jayce Brown, tight end Garrett Oakley, and running back Dylan Edwards – who steps into a bigger role after averaging 7.4 yards per attempt last year. Defensively, KSU returns 63% of its production, including its top 2 tacklers in Austin Romaine and VJ Payne. In fact, the Wildcats bring back 4 of their top 9 tacklers, but their leader in sacks will be replaced, as will as many as 4 key contributors in the secondary. 

The Cyclones don’t have as much continuity as the Wildcats. Iowa State is 41st in overall returning production, bringing back 65% of the offense and 57% of the defense. Rocco Becht offers stability at quarterback, and while the offensive line lost multiple pieces to the NFL, all 5 projected starters played at least 350 snaps in this system last year. This is going to pay dividends for the running back room, which brings back its top 2 producers in Carson Hansen, who scored 15 total touchdowns, and Abu Sama – who finished with 587 yards behind Hansen. The issue is, the Cyclones lost a pair of 1,100+ yard receivers to the NFL that accounted for 17 of the team’s 25 receiving touchdowns. ECU transfer Chase Sowell and UCF transfer Xavier Townsend step in to replace Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins, but expect a decent drop-off in production from this group – especially early in the season. For what it’s worth, no other pass-catcher had more than 300 yards or 2 touchdowns for the Cyclones last year. 

Defensively, Iowa State returns only 57% of its production. The Cyclones will have to replace their top 2 tacklers, their 3 leaders in sacks, and a couple of their best coverage defenders in the secondary. It may take time for this unit to gel, which should work to Kansas State’s favor, especially early in the game. 

Both teams are replacing plenty of high-leverage pieces from last season, but I expect it to affect Iowa State more than Kansas State in this game. Becht will have to create new chemistry with his entire wide receiver group, putting extra pressure on the offensive line and rushing attack – which isn’t a recipe for success if the Cyclones were to fall behind early due to a leaky defense replacing key pieces in all 3 phases. Iowa State’s 3-3-5 defense is already inherently susceptible against the run, as shown by the 188 yards allowed per game to FBS opponents in 2024 (110th), which is a massive advantage for a run-heavy Wildcat offense. Look for Johnson and Edwards to rip off multiple explosive runs and provide Kansas State with an early lead that proves to be insurmountable for Iowa State’s new-look passing offense.

Iowa State vs Kansas State prediction: Kansas State -3 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable to -4.

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I don’t see a ton of value on this total. I certainly lean under in the anticipation that a vast majority of this game will be kept on the ground by both teams, which should lead to a running clock more often than not. However, I could see both defenses struggling to prevent explosive plays on the ground and missing tackles in bunches, especially Iowa State against what should be yet another dynamic rushing attack spearheaded by Avery Johnson. For reference, both teams were outside the top 80 in PFF’s tackling grade, while Iowa State was 120th in PFF’s run defense grade – giving up nearly 189 yards per game against FBS opponents. 

What’s going to ultimately push me to the Under in this game is the regression I expect from Iowa State’s offense inside the 40-yard line. Iowa State was top 40 in points per opportunity outside of garbage time last year, as well as top 45 in red zone conversions (which includes field goals), but a lot of that was due to the elite production of Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins. Without them, I don’t trust them to finish as many drives with points in this game. Given the combination of expectations that both teams rely heavily on the run while Iowa State struggles to put points on the board without its top 2 pass-catchers, the Under is the most appealing bet on the total for Farmageddon.

Iowa State vs Kansas State prediction: Under 49.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to 48.5.

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