James Madison Dukes vs Texas State Bobcats Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 10/28/25

The James Madison Dukes are rolling through conference play in the Sun Belt, rattling off 5 straight wins in the same span that Texas State has seen its season take a turn for the worse, going 1-4 straight up and 0-5 against the spread. One thing the Bobcats have done consistently is score, averaging 36.1 points per game. However, Texas State has yet to face a defense remotely close to the Dukes’ talented unit.

James Madison ranks 2nd in FBS in defensive success rate allowing just 237 yards per game, the fourth-best mark in the country. The Dukes have primarily excelled at shutting down the run — ranking 6th in EPA/rush and 2nd in rushing yards per game allowed — something that should serve well against a Bobcats squad that has the 12th-highest rushing play percentage in the country. Offensively, the Dukes are coming off a 63-point performance against an Old Dominion squad with much stronger underlying defensive metrics than the Bobcats have posted in 2025. With all things considered, I’ll take James Madison to cover on this Tuesday night matchup.

James Madison vs Texas State prediction: James Madison -6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -7 (-110).