Kansas State Wildcats vs Arizona Wildcats Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 09/12/25

The Big 12 conference schedule really gets cooking on Friday as there are a couple of games, including the Kansas State Wildcats vs the Arizona Wildcats. Kansas State got a jump on the conference schedule with the Week 0 matchup in Ireland, taking a 24-21 loss to Iowa State. They bounced back to narrowly beat North Dakota, then lost last weekend to Army. All three games have been settled by just 3 points. As for the Wildcats (the Arizona ones, that is), they have opened with two soft opponents that they blew out, Hawaii and Weber State. We know they want to run up-tempo offense, but we have yet to find out if they can do it against a quality opponent. Kansas State came into this season with playoff aspirations; if they lose this game on the road, they could already be dead in the water with as many strong teams as are in this conference. I think Kansas State gets it done, and I am taking them -1.5.

Earlier this week, the line briefly flipped to favor Arizona, a likely reaction to both the K-State struggles and the Arizona offense. Their tempo worked well in the first two weeks, but I still have a lot of questions about both their offensive line and their defensive front 7. Kansas State will expose both of those issues if they are, in fact, weakness for Arizona. K-State ought to be a run-heavy scheme, but with their #1 running back missing the first 3 games, they have gotten far out of balance toward the passing game. That probably needs to change if they are going to be successful, and RB Dylan Edwards is at least possible to return to the lineup on Friday. Kansas State already has their season on the line, and I need to see Arizona do it against someone better than Weber State. Give me Kansas State to cover a slim number.

Kansas State vs Arizona Prediction: Kansas State -1.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable to -2.5.

I think this is likely to be a high-scoring game more in the style of the classic Big 12 shoot-outs. Friday night games tend to favor offenses, and both these offenses are better than the defenses. Style of play should also favor lots of points, and thus my Kansas State vs Arizona pick is the game total over 54.5.

Arizona brought in a new offensive coordinator in the offseason to try to get Noah Fifita and the offense back on the attack. Fifita lost his long-time favorite target Tet McMillan to the NFL, but the up-tempo, attacking style of the offense should favor him. On the other side, the best offense for Kansas State is on the ground, especially when it opens up RPO schemes for dual-threat QB Avery Johnson. Johnson is not great in obvious passing downs, but when they run first, he is lethal. This running attack is not really a slow grind either, which is important for our game total. I don’t think the Arizona defense will offer much resistance, and the Arizona offense will have to / want to keep pace. Someone needs to hit 30 points to get us over the total, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they both do it. Give me the over.

Kansas State vs Arizona Prediction: Over 54.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.