Kansas State Wildcats vs Baylor Bears Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 10/04/25

The Kansas State Wildcats finally looked the part in a win over UCF last week. The Wildcats ran the ball well behind 168 yards from RB Dylan Edwards and 75 from QB Avery Johnson, and were efficient in the passing game. Despite having an inconsistent offense, the Wildcats defense has been solid all year, primarily against the pass. Kansas State is holding opponents to just 181 passing yards per game, ranking 7th in success rate against the pass.

While Baylor does have a strong passing game behind QB Sawyer Robertson, the Bears hold a 58.06% passing play percentage, the 13th-highest mark in FBS. 17 of the Bears 24 TDs this season have come through the air, and that relatively one-dimensional approach could hurt them against a solid secondary unit like Kansas State’s. Baylor ranks outside of the top 100 in EPA margin defensively, and I expect Kansas State to carry some momentum over offensively after a solid performance last week. I’ll take the wildcats to cover on the road.

Kansas State vs Baylor prediction: Kansas State +6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.