LSU Tigers vs Houston Cougars Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 12/27/25

The LSU Tigers face the Houston Cougars in the Texas Bowl on Saturday. This game is played in Houston, which is obviously a home game for the Cougars, but really, it might as well be a home game for the Tigers, too, given their proximity to Houston. The Cougars are favored in this game, which will likely be surprising to many. However, Houston has overachieved all season long, and the Cougars are a far better and more complete football team than one might think. LSU, by contrast, had a disastrous season, and it ended with the firing of head coach Brian Kelly. In this matchup, I view Houston as the more complete team, and I don’t want to fool around with the mess that is LSU right now, so I’ll take the Cougars -2.5.

Houston will head into this game pretty well intact. Quarterback Conner Weigman was a bit of a question mark, but he has declared that he will be back next year for his final year of eligibility, so no worries there. This is a team with a good defense and an adequate offense, and it was an impressive 8-4 against the spread this year, which is often an indication that a team was undervalued in the market. On the other side, LSU is in the middle of a coaching change, and that always means a ton of opt-outs and transfers. The Tigers have also been playing without Garrett Nussmeier at QB for a few weeks because of injury. I don’t want to mess around with a roster in flux and a program in disarray; give me Houston in this spot, even if it isn’t a very sexy pick.

LSU vs Houston prediction: Houston Cougars -2.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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