Memphis Tigers vs NC State Wolfpack Prediction, Odds and Picks for Friday, 12/19/25

The Gasparilla Bowl comes to us from Tampa, Florida, and it features the Memphis Tigers vs the NC State Wolfpack. The Wolfpack had a hot close to the season, winning 3 of their final 4 games to get themselves bowl eligible. Memphis, on the other hand, closed the season on a 3-game losing skid after briefly entering the Group of 5 playoff talk. Since then, Memphis head coach Ryan Silverfield has left town for the Arkansas job also. So we might think this is a spot that favors NC State. Nevertheless, I think this is too many points, and I will take Memphis to cover.

It is always risky taking the team whose coach has left, but most of the players seem to be in place, and a good number of them would like to put down some good tape for the incoming coaching staff. On the NC State side, there are a handful of potential opt-outs, but most of the core players seem poised to suit up. My issue in this game is the NC State defense. This unit ranks 115 out of 134 in total defense, and we simply cannot trust them to get stops. Memphis has enough offensive firepower to score, and this game should just be trading scores back and forth all night. I like this one to stay close, and don’t be surprised if Memphis is right there the whole way. I’ll take the points with the Tigers.

Memphis vs NC State Prediction: Memphis +4.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.