Miami Hurricanes vs Indiana Hoosiers Prediction, Odds and 2026 National Championship Picks for Today, 01/19/26

After a long and grueling season filled with ebbs and flows, the National Championship Game is finally here. We have a fascinating matchup on our hands on Monday, as the top-seeded Indiana Hoosiers are set to take on the Miami Hurricanes, who are a bit of a Cinderella story based on their seeding in the playoff bracket. Miami has knocked off the likes of Texas A&M, Ohio State and Ole Miss in consecutive games, while the top-seeded Indiana Hoosiers rolled through Alabama and Oregon in extremely impressive fashion to advance to this point. Which of these teams will come out on top at Hard Rock Stadium and take home a national title? It’s almost time to find out.

I went against Indiana a week ago, and while that wager didn’t have much of a chance, I’m going back to the well with a cautious fade of Curt Cignetti and the Hoosiers in the biggest game of the season. While it’s hard to ignore what we’ve seen from the Hoosiers over their last few contests, the basic market fundamentals clearly point to Miami as the side in this game at the current number. For starters, it’s clear that a wager on Indiana in this game is buying the Hoosiers at the peak of their market value, and Indiana has already taken a ton of steam that has moved the line from 7 points at the open all the way up to nearly double digits. This is a pretty significant move considering that Miami is 3-0 against the number in the postseason, and the Hurricanes are going to be playing on their home field in this one, which has to count for something in a game of this magnitude. Even after factoring in Indiana’s massive improvements throughout the season, I still can’t get to this number given how well Miami is playing at the moment. 

While the Hurricanes might be a Cinderella story based on their seed, this team has been great in all areas during this improbable run to the title game. Mario Cristobal’s group appears to be playing its best football of the season on defense, and the offense has certainly come along and gotten more comfortable with each playoff game. The Hurricanes certainly have a massive test ahead against Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza and the Hoosiers’ extremely balanced offense (2nd in success rate, 2nd in EPA per play, 1st in points per drive). However, given the fact that Miami’s defense just had to face Trinidad Chambliss and the electric Ole Miss offense — in addition to the excellent Texas A&M offense and Ohio State’s dynamic wide receiving corps — we can expect the Hurricanes to be prepared and up to the task in this one, particularly at the line of scrimmage. On the other side of the ball, the Indiana defense has also been a top-5 unit in the sport over the course of the season, but given the fact that Miami was able to move the ball successfully on the ground with Mark Fletcher Jr. against both Texas A&M and Ohio State, the Hoosiers’ formidable defensive front shouldn’t spook this Hurricanes ground game.

There’s no doubt that Indiana has looked like a wrecking ball all postseason long, and the Hoosiers should certainly be in position to walk away with a championship on Monday. However, this number is just a bit too rich for my blood now that we’ve cleared a full possession, and it would not shock me if the ‘Canes got a nice boost from their home fans in a game that is being played in their backyard. I’ll take the points with Cristobal and bank on another spirited effort from his team.

Miami vs Indiana prediction: Miami +9 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +8.5.

If you’re looking for a new sportsbook, check out Bet365, the world’s #1 sportsbook. They have an amazing sign-up offer where you can INSTANTLY receive $200 in bonus bets from a $5 wager, regardless of whether that bet wins or loses! There’s no catch, it’s really that simple. Join Bet365 right now ⏰ in time to fade or follow our experts’ Miami vs Indiana predictions.

This is my favorite player prop bet of the National Championship, and because of that, I included it in my Same Game Parlay. However, I will touch on why I like Toney to tally at least 60 yards again for you here. 

Toney leads the Hurricanes in targets and receptions by a wide margin. With 127 targets, he is 50 ahead of the 2nd-most-targeted Miami receiver in Keelan Marion, and his 99 receptions are 43 more than Marion, as well. On those 99 receptions, Toney has compiled 1,089 yards and 11 yards per reception. He also averages 7.5 yards after the catch by way of his game-breaking speed and versatility out of the slot. 

Ultimately, I see Toney as the X-factor for the Hurricanes in this game. Mark Fletcher Jr. is going to be heavily involved in the run game, but Toney will be called upon early and often in the passing game to stretch the field and get behind Indiana’s secondary, which is an area he has excelled all season.

Indiana’s defense is certainly tenacious and one of the best in the country, but the Hoosiers can be vulnerable on the back half, specifically on passing downs. Dating back to the end of October, Indiana is 55th in passing downs success rate, as well as outside the top 90 in passing downs PPA and outside the top 100 in passing downs explosiveness allowed. This is important to note because Indiana’s defense is so good on standard downs, forcing opponents into obvious passing situations more often than not. Luckily for Miami, the ‘Canes are excellent in these obvious passing situations, boasting top-20 marks in passing downs PPA and success rate since Week 9. Toney is a catalyst for that success.