HomeCollege FootballCollege Football PredictionsMiami Hurricanes vs Ohio State Buckeyes Prediction, Odds and Goodyear Cotton Bowl Picks

Miami Hurricanes vs Ohio State Buckeyes Prediction, Odds and Goodyear Cotton Bowl Picks for Today, 12/31/25

Updated: 7:53 AM ET Dec 31, 2025

AT&T StadiumESPN

Miami

7:30 PM ETToday

Ohio State

WWWWW	Last 5	WWWWL
11-2	Record	12-1
0-0-0	ATS Record	0-0-0
0-0	O/U Record	0-0

Miami vs Ohio State Pickswise Expert Predictions

Point Spread Pick

Ohio State -9.0(-110)

Reasoning

The College Football Playoff resumes on Wednesday after a much-too-long break between the first round and the second round. There will only be one CFP matchup on New Year’s Eve before the final 3 quarterfinal games are played on New Year’s Day, and that lone matchup pits the 11-2 Miami Hurricanes and the 12-1 Ohio State Buckeyes. The Hurricanes come into this playoff matchup on the heels of a 10-3 first-round win over Texas A&M in College Station, but they were outgained, had 9 fewer first downs, and converted just 25% of their third downs. The keys to victory were the 3 turnovers they forced and the 6.3 yards per rush they averaged against the Aggies defense.

At 87th nationally in giveaways per game, the Aggies were very much turnover-prone this year. Ohio State is a completely different animal, as the Buckeyes average just 0.7 giveaways per game – good for 4th nationally. Much of that is due to OSU QB Julian Sayin’s ball security, as the first-year starter has just 6 interceptions on 6 turnover-worthy plays. Compare that to TAMU QB Marcel Reed, who finished the year with 12 interceptions and 22 turnover-worthy plays – tied for 3rd-most nationally. Considering Sayin finished the season with no more than 1 turnover-worth play in any game, it’s hard to imagine Miami capitalizing on turnovers like it did against Texas A&M.

It’s also difficult to envision Miami RB Mark Fletcher Jr. having as much success on the ground against the Buckeyes as he did against the Aggies. For reference, Fletcher averaged just over 10 yards per carry and accounted for 172 of Miami’s 278 total yards. He attacked the weakness of Texas A&M’s defense (104th in PPA per rush this season) I mentioned in my Miami-Texas A&M preview, which ultimately was the reason – along with Reed’s turnover propensity – we played Miami plus the points. This time around, Fletcher and Miami will face an Ohio State run defense that is 5th in rush yards allowed per game and 6th in yards per attempt this season, not to mention being 1st nationally in scoring and total defense. Moreover, the Buckeyes are 10th in PPA per rush and 18th in standard downs PPA allowed since Week 9, so they are in great form coming into this game. Without a reliable run game, more pressure will be thrust onto Carson Beck’s shoulders, which isn’t very settling for Miami given Beck’s hit-or-miss play against above-average defenses.

On the other side of the ball, Miami grades very well. The Hurricanes are top-12 in yards per play, scoring, and total defense, but they showed some deficiencies against capable offenses like Louisville and SMU. Ohio State has the best offense of any that Miami has seen to this point, even if the Buckeyes are outside the top 15 in scoring and total offense due to their slow pace of play. Since Week 9, the Bucks are top-10 in PPA per play, success rate, and points scored per quality drive, and they are notably good on passing downs, which has been an area of weakness for Miami’s defense.

Miami has star power similar to that of Ohio State, but for my money, the Buckeyes are the more complete team with a more reliable head coach, and they are better than the Hurricanes in almost every aspect on both sides of the ball. Look for OSU to suffocate Miami in a win and cover to advance to the semifinals.

Miami vs Ohio State prediction: Buckeyes -9 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -9.5.

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Game Totals Pick

Under 41.5(-110)

Reasoning

Both Miami and Ohio State deploy very methodical offenses, as the Hurricanes are 129th in seconds per play while the Buckeyes are dead last at 136th. Right off the bat, I lean to the under because of that, along with the extra preparation both teams had coming into this matchup. Furthermore, Miami and OSU’s defensive success will play a factor in whether or not this game stays under the total, as they mutually rank top-12 in yards per play and third-down conversion rate allowed this year. That defensive prowess hasn’t tailed off much at all down the stretch considering the Hurricanes and the Buckeyes are top-25 in PPA per play allowed since Week 9. Both defenses have been especially good on standard downs in that span, which means Miami and Ohio State could face more third-and-long situations than they would like.

Given how good both defenses are on early downs and third downs, it’s no surprise to see Miami and Ohio State sitting in the top-5 in red-zone attempts allowed this season. Simply put, it’s been difficult to move the ball on either team, which leads me to believe this will be a low-scoring game. However, I also acknowledge the offensive ceiling Ohio State showcased in the College Football Playoff last year. If the Buckeyes decide to play faster now that they reached the postseason, this total may end up being too low by a few points, but until that happens, I lean to the under.

Miami vs Ohio State prediction: Under 41.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to 41.

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Show Bio

Long-time suffering Browns fan born and raised in the greater Cleveland, Ohio area who now resides in SEC country. University of South Carolina alum. Sports handicapper for close to 10 years with a primary focus on NCAAB while enjoying NFL, PGA, NCAAF, NBA, and Soccer. For Sam Avellone media enquiries, please email contact@pickswise.com.

Same Game Parlay

Point Spread

Ohio State -9.5

Team Total

Miami TT - Under 16.5 pts

Anytime Touchdown Scorer

J. Smith (OSU) to score a TD

Reasoning

Ohio State Buckeyes -9.5 over Miami Hurricanes (-110)

Texas A&M gave Miami 3 extra possessions in the first round of the CFP, and I don’t see that happening again. Ohio State is nowhere near as turnover-prone as Texas A&M, considering the Buckeyes are top-5 in giveaways per game, compared to Texas A&M’s rank of 87th. OSU QB Julian Sayin is much more conservative with the ball in his hands than TAMU QB Marcel Reed, posting just 6 interceptions and 6 turnover-worthy plays compared to Reed’s 12 and 22, respectively.

Miami also benefited from a dominant showing from RB Mark Fletcher Jr., who averaged more than 10 yards per carry in the win over the Aggies. Simply put, he exploited a weakness in Texas A&M’s defense that doesn’t exist in the Buckeyes stop-unit. OSU is top-6 in both rush yards per game and yards per attempt allowed this season, which means Miami QB Carson Beck may have to beat the Buckeyes through the air. That’s going to be tough, as they are 1st overall in passing yards allowed per game and 2nd in yards per attempt. Beck is certainly an above-average college quarterback, but can he be trusted against Matt Patricia’s defense? He threw 2 picks against USF and SMU, as well as 4 in Miami’s loss to Louisville.

Defensively, Miami grades almost as well as Ohio State, but there were some curious performances against Louisville and SMU, and the Buckeyes can exploit those defensive inconsistencies. Mix in the coaching advantage for Ohio State, and the path to a double-digit win becomes visible.

Miami Hurricanes Team Total Under 16.5 (-170)

Miami’s offense can certainly be explosive, but it can also be non-existent – much like it was in lieu of a win over Texas A&M. The Hurricanes only gained 278 yards in that game, in addition to converting just 3 of 12 third downs, which is concerning given the 3 turnovers they forced. The inability to finish drives against an Aggies defense that sits outside the top 125 in red-zone scoring allowed doesn’t bode well for Miami’s chances to find pay dirt against the top-ranked Buckeyes red-zone defense.

I’m going right back to the well with OSU’s defense in this spot. Ohio State has not allowed a single opponent to score more than 16 points this year, which includes their 13-10 loss to Indiana in the Big Ten title game – the Hoosiers’ lowest scoring output of the season by a full touchdown. Don’t be surprised to see Miami settle for multiple field goals here.

Jeremiah Smith (OSU) anytime touchdown scorer (+110)

There’s no need to introduce Jeremiah Smith. If you follow college football, you know how dominant he is. Opposing defensive coordinators center their gameplans around stopping him, and very few have succeeded. He’s scored 11 touchdowns this year, and while Carnell Tate certainly eats into his target share, he’s about as matchup-proof as it gets at this level.

Smith exploded for 2 touchdowns in each of his first 2 playoff games en route to 5 total playoff touchdowns last year, so he’s been there, done that at the highest level. For what it’s worth, he’s coming off a game against Indiana in which he did not score, and he has yet to be blanked in consecutive games this year. Despite Tate’s stellar play, Smith should demand the bigger target share and is likely to be Sayin’s first option in scoring range. At plus-money odds, this feels like a no-brainer.

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Point Spread

Ohio State is 8-5 against the spread this season.

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