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Miami Hurricanes

Miami Hurricanes vs Ole Miss Rebels Prediction, Odds and Vrbo Fiesta Bowl Picks for Tomorrow, 01/08/26

State Farm StadiumESPN
Miami
Miami
Tomorrow
Ole Miss
Ole Miss
WWWWW
Last 5
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12-2Record13-1
0-0-0ATS Record0-0-0
0-0O/U Record0-0
Ole Miss Rebels

Miami vs Ole Miss Pickswise Expert Predictions

Point Spread Pick
Ole Miss +3.5(-122)

The College Football Playoff continues with a semifinal Fiesta Bowl matchup between the Miami Hurricanes and the Ole Miss Rebels on Thursday. The Hurricanes controversially (to some) made the playoff as the last team in, and they’ve proven they belong. Not only did they beat Texas A&M in College Station, but they handled the defending national champions in the Ohio State Buckeyes in the quarterfinals. While Miami was outgained by OSU, the Hurricanes held the Buckeyes to 1.9 yards per rush, 3/10 on 3rd downs, and forced QB Julian Sayin into 2 interceptions – notably Keionte Scott’s pick-6 on a bubble screen. The numbers really don’t even do it justice, as Miami dominated in the trenches. 

As for Ole Miss, the Rebels steamrolled Tulane in their opening playoff game without any issue and then managed to knock off Georgia in the Sugar Bowl 39-34 thanks to some late-game heroics by QB Trinidad Chambliss and questionable decisions by Kirby Smart. The Rebels outgained the Bulldogs 473-343 and held them to just 3/13 on 3rd downs, limiting them both on the ground and through the air. The Rebels also tallied 20 points in the final period to seal the win, which is surprising considering that is usually when the Bulldogs handle their business and pull away from their opponents. 

Ole Miss has the weakest defense of the remaining playoff teams, but I would argue some of that has to do with the pace at which the Rebels play offensively. The defense is still very good when compared to the average FBS team and seemed to improve down the stretch, as the Rebels entered the playoffs ranking 22nd in PPA per play, 5th in success rate and 11th in points allowed per quality drive. Admittedly, the schedule of offenses over that stretch wasn’t the best, but this unit has proven it can at least support the dynamic Rebels offense – a unit that was top-25 in the 3 aforementioned metrics over the course of the entire season. 

In order to be in position to win this game, Ole Miss has to withstand Miami’s pressure. The Hurricanes have the most lethal pass rush in the country and have wreaked havoc on their opponents throughout the season – finishing 9th in front-7 havoc generated outside of garbage time. That said, Chambliss has been just fine when facing pressure, completing 54.5% of his passes with 7 big-time throws and just 1 turnover-worthy play. His mobility enables him to evade pressure and avoid sacks, as shown by his top-40 rating in PFF’s pressure-to-sack rate in these situations. When opponents blitz Chambliss, his sack rate goes up, but he’s still a very effective passer, completing almost 62% of his passes with 14 big-time throws (3rd nationally) and just 3 turnover-worthy plays. 

In a game I project to be higher-scoring, I lean toward Ole Miss’ offense to provide a high enough floor to at least cover this number.

Miami vs Ole Miss prediction: Ole Miss Rebels +3.5 (-122) available at time of publishing. Playable to +3.

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Sam Avellone
Game Totals Pick
Over 51.5(-115)

As I alluded to previously, I expect this game to be higher-scoring. Ole Miss’ offense feels matchup-proof at this point thanks to QB Trinidad Chambliss. The Rebels play at a top-20 pace, and their explosiveness is elite, as they rank 2nd in plays of at least 10 yards, 4th in plays of at least 20 yards, and 1st in plays of at least 30 yards. Chambliss will have to evade pressure from Miami’s vaunted pass rush in order to generate plays down the field, but that’s something he’s done very well this season – as evidenced by his top-20 passer rating, top-15 big-time throw rate and top-6 turnover-worthy play rate when pressured. 

Miami has played in low-scoring games of late, holding each of its 6 opponents to 17 points or less following its loss at SMU. However, that is more a testament to its defense than its offense,  as the Hurricanes scored at least 24 points in 5 of those matchups. Given the fact that they are going up against an Ole Miss defense with some holes, I expect QB Carson Beck and the Hurricanes to generate points. For what it’s worth, the Rebels surrendered 24+ points to Georgia twice, Arkansas, Oklahoma and Florida, and their run defense has been questionable at times. In fact, the Rebels finished the regular season outside the top 50 in standard downs efficiency, 129th in PPA per rush and 94th in rushing success rate allowed. Just look at their recent results against opposing rushing attacks: Georgia RB Nate Frazier averaged 5.7 yards per carry against the Ole Miss stop-unit in the quarterfinals, while Tulane RB Jamauri McClure averaged 5.6 in the first round and Mississippi State averaged 6.1 as a team in Week 14. Miami RB Mark Fletcher Jr. can exploit this weakness.

Miami’s slow pace of play is a concern when targeting this over, but Ole Miss plays lightning fast, which should provide plenty of possessions to surpass this number. Moreover, Miami should find enough chunk plays to put itself into multiple scoring situations, as Ole Miss is outside the top 50 in explosive play rate allowed. Will it be enough to cover the spread as a favorite? I’m not so sure, but I do expect both teams to reach the mid-20s and will take the over because of that. 

Miami vs Ole Miss pick: Over 51.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to 53.

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Sam Avellone
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Sam Avellone

Long-time suffering Browns fan born and raised in the greater Cleveland, Ohio area who now resides in SEC country. University of South Carolina alum. Sports handicapper for close to 10 years with a primary focus on NCAAB while enjoying NFL, PGA, NCAAF, NBA, and Soccer. For Sam Avellone media enquiries, please email contact@pickswise.com.
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Ole Miss is on a 7-game win streak.

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