Miami Hurricanes vs SMU Mustangs Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 11/01/25

This matchup has all the makings of a scoreboard thriller. Both Miami and SMU boast potent offenses that average north of 30 points per game, and with that kind of firepower on both sidelines, this could easily resemble a basketball game on turf. The total sitting at 51 feels a bit light considering the pace and explosiveness each team brings.

Miami’s defense has earned the “elite” label in some circles, but that reputation deserves scrutiny. Their best numbers have come against a soft early schedule — opponents like Bethune-Cookman (FCS), USF, Florida, and Stanford were all held to single digits. The outlier? A 12-point effort by the Bulls that still didn’t tell us much. Against teams capable of consistently moving the football — Notre Dame and Florida State, for example — the Hurricanes surrendered 21 points or more, squeaking out wins by a combined nine points.

SMU’s ground game mirrors the power and balance of both the Irish and the Seminoles, meaning Miami’s defense is unlikely to pitch another near-shutout. On the other side, the Hurricanes should find plenty of success against a Mustangs defense ranked 112th in Total Defense.

Expect explosive plays, quick scoring drives, and limited resistance on both ends. The Over is the play here — and it might be cashed well before the fourth quarter.

Miami vs. SMU prediction: Over 51.0 (-110) available at  time of publishing. Playable at number posted.

The Miami Hurricanes have proven they’re far from bulletproof. After tossing four interceptions in a costly loss to Louisville — a defeat that came as 13-point home favorites — the Canes now face another tricky matchup against a sneaky SMU squad. On paper, this looks like another opportunity to clobber for Miami, they after all scored 42 unanswered against Stanford last week. But bettors should beware: the Mustangs are far more dangerous than their recent loss to Wake Forest suggests.

SMU may have fallen off the national radar, yet this is still a team with firepower and pride. They rolled through much of last season and are eager to prove that their success wasn’t a one-year wonder. With the game in Abilene, the atmosphere will be electric, and SMU will be amped to showcase its talent on a bigger stage.

Miami’s offense remains explosive, but turnovers and inconsistency have been recurring issues for Quarterback Carson Beck. Laying nearly two touchdowns against a motivated, well-coached team like SMU feels like too tall an order. The Hurricanes could very well win, but the spread gives plenty of room for the Mustangs to cover — and possibly more.

SMU on the money line might tempt the bold, but the smart play here is to grab the points and ride with the Ponies.

Miami vs. SMU prediction: SMU -20 (-110) available at  time of publishing. Playable to +12.