Michigan State Spartans vs Indiana Hoosiers Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 10/18/25

Coming off arguably their biggest win in school history, the Indiana Hoosiers will try to continue their undefeated season this Saturday when they welcome the Michigan State Spartans to Bloomington. Indiana’s 6-0 record is no fluke at this point, as it includes 3 Big Ten wins. The Hoosiers last win was a 30-20 victory on the road against Oregon, which felt like a big step forward for the program – proving to the college football world that the Hoosiers are for real in 2025. Quarterback Fernando Mendoza threw for 215 yards and 1 touchdown pass against Oregon, and has excelled all season throwing for 1423 yards and 17 touchdowns.

Indiana’s high-powered offense will welcome the 3-3 Spartans. Michigan State started the season winning its first 3 games, but the Spartans are currently on a 3-game losing streak – all to conference opponents. The Spartans’ last game was a 38-13 defeat against UCLA. They started the game with a 7-0 lead, but ended up seeing the momentum shift away from them after quarterback Aiden Chiles went down with an injury. Chiles is listed as questionable for the game against Indiana.

In order for Indiana to cover this spread against Michigan State, the Hoosiers will have to be at their best. They have shown all season that, under head coach Curt Cignetti, they come ready to play each and every Saturday. Indiana’s defense currently ranks 4th in the FBS with only 229 yards allowed per game. They also rank 5th in the turnover margin at a total of +7. It could go without saying that if this defense brings its normal intensity, it will cause a lot of trouble for backup quarterback Alessio Milivojevic (assuming Chiles is unable to play).

Michigan State’s head coach Jonathan Smith still has a lot of confidence in his backup quarterback. Milivojevic is a former 3-star prospect from the state of Illinois. He has exposure under center this season against other Big Ten Conference teams, throwing a touchdown pass and avoiding any turnovers against both UCLA and Nebraska. Due to the excitement surrounding the Hoosiers, the Spartans may struggle early against an amped-up Hoosier defense, but once this game settles in the second half, the Spartans offense should be able to put some points up on the board with whoever they have under center. I have points coming easy for Indiana and Michigan State, providing just enough to push this game over the total. 

Michigan State vs Indiana prediction: Over 52.5 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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