Michigan State Spartans vs Iowa Hawkeyes Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 11/22/25

The Michigan State Spartans have lost seven straight entering Saturday’s matchup on the road against a quality Iowa Hawkeyes squad. While Iowa has made a name for itself in recent years with some low-scoring, darwin out results, that’s the Hawkeyes of old. In 2025, this offense is more than capable of putting up points behind an elite rushing attack. Iowa ranks 18th in both EPA/rush and rushing success rate, which bodes well against this Spartans squad that 97th in EPA/rush and 112th in net points per drive allowed.

Michigan State has been poor in practically every area defensively, but particularly when it comes to stalling drives; the Spartans rank 93rd in red zone defense in 110th in points per quality drive allowed. I expect the Iowa offense to have an exceptional day, already scoring 34+ points in half of its games this season. The Michigan State offense has looked slightly improved ever since Alessio Milivojevic took over at QB, and has posted a respectable 24 points per game in 2025. With all things considered, I’ve got the over in this one.

Michigan State vs Iowa prediction: Over 42.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.