Michigan Wolverines vs Michigan State Spartans Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 10/25/25

Michigan State has gone from 3-0 to 3-4 in the blink of an eye, and it hasn’t looked pretty throughout the 4-game losing streak entering Saturday’s Battle for the Paul Bunyan Trophy. The Spartans offense has been a dud, ranking 100th in quality drive rate, and the defense has struggled to string together stops consistently – ranking 130th in quality drive rate allowed. The defense has been the primary culprit for the Spartans’ struggles, as Michigan State surrenders 382.7 yards per game and has struggled against both the run and pass. For this matchup in particular, I’ve got my eye on key metrics in the run game.

It’s no secret Michigan likes to run the football. The Wolverines hold the 33rd highest run rate in FBS, and have had success doing so – ranking 13th in EPA/rush. The Michigan ground game is led by RB Justice Haynes, who ranks 5th individually in FBS with 7.4 yards per carry. If Michigan State was unable to post more than 13 points against UCLA and Indiana, there’s not much of a path for the Spartans to surpass that mark against this Wolverines defense that ranks top-20 in both EPA/rush and EPA/dropback. With all things considered, I’ll take Michigan to win this one comfortably and cover on the road.

Michigan vs Michigan State prediction: Michigan Wolverines -14 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

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Michigan State has gone from 3-0 to 3-4 in the blink of an eye, and it hasn’t looked pretty throughout the four-game losing streak entering Saturday’s Battle for the Paul Bunyan Trophy. The Spartans offense has been a dud, ranking 100th in quality drive rate, and the defense has struggled to string together stops consistently, ranking 130th in quality drive rate allowed. The defense has been the primary culprit for the Spartans’ struggles; Michigan State is surrendering 382.7 yards per game and has struggled against both the run and pass. For this matchup in particular, I’ve got my eye on key metrics in the run game.

It’s no secret Michigan likes to run the football — holding the 33rd highest run rate in FBS — and has had success doing so, ranking 13th in EPA/rush led by RB Justice Haynes, who ranks 5th individually in FBS with 7.4 yards per carry. If Michigan State was unable to post more than 13 points against UCLA and Indiana, there’s not much of a path for the Spartans to surpass that mark against this Wolverines defense that ranks top-20 in both EPA/rush and EPA/dropback. With all things considered, I’ll take Michigan to win this one comfortably and cover on the road.

Michigan vs Michigan State prediction: Michigan -14 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.