Michigan Wolverines vs Texas Longhorns Prediction, Odds and Picks for Wednesday, 12/31/25

Texas is being priced here as though it is should have been in the College Football Playoff — but that makes sense, the Wolverines are in a transition period from a coaching perspective. But a closer look suggests the Longhorns may be riding perception more than reality. Michigan enters this matchup as mentioned surrounded by noise: the coaching turmoil, the fallout from Sherron Moore’s firing, and the Ohio State loss. Texas meanwhile has gripes about not making the CFP.

But semantics inside, what has Texas truly done to justify laying this kind of number? Yes, they own top-10 wins over Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, and Texas A&M — but each comes with context. Oklahoma’s offense was compromised and their flaws obvious all season. John Mateer was also banged up in Red River. Texas A&M largely beat itself in Austin. And Vanderbilt? They nearly erased a 24-point deficit in the DKR. Meanwhile, Texas also needed overtime to escape both Mississippi State and Kentucky — two losing teams — lost to a four-win Florida side in Gainesville, and was dismantled by Georgia. That résumé hardly screams “trustworthy favorite laying more than a touchdown.” Michigan still plays elite defense, controls the trenches, and are a physical bunch. That profile travels — especially as an underdog. The Wolverines don’t need to win outright to  be in position here, they simply need to play their brand of football. With Texas likely overpriced and Michigan undervalued, the points here are a steal.

Michigan vs Texas prediction: Michigan +7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +7.